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Something to Do with Population

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PROGRAM ON THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY OF AGING

Working Paper Series

Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth
David E. Bloom

January 2011

PGDA Working Paper No. 65 http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working.htm

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Harvard Initiative for Global Health. The Program on the Global Demography of Aging receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, Grant No. 1 P30 AG024409-06.

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Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth1
David E. Bloom Harvard School of Public Health January 2011 Keywords: Age structure China-India comparison Conditional convergence Demographic dividend Demographic transition Economic growth Economic growth in India Policy reform Population health Population of India

Abstract Demographic change in India is opening up new economic opportunities. As in many countries, declining infant and child mortality helped to spark lower fertility, effectively resulting in a temporary baby boom. As this cohort moves into working ages, India finds itself with a potentially higher share of workers as compared with dependents. If working-age people can be productively employed, India’s economic growth stands to accelerate. Theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of demographics on labor supply, savings, and economic growth underpins this effort to understand and forecast economic growth in India. Policy choices can potentiate India’s realization of economic benefits stemming from demographic change. Failure to take advantage of the opportunities inherent in demographic change can lead to economic stagnation.

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This chapter has been prepared for The Handbook of the Indian Economy (Chetan Ghate, Ed., Oxford University Press, forthcoming 2011). An earlier version of this chapter was presented at

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