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HOMEWORK: TURN IN YOUR FORECASTS FOR THE NUMBER OF MACHINES YOU THINK XEROX COULD SELL THROUGH DIRECT SALES OR BY ESTABLISHING SERVICE CENTERS. SHOW YOUR ANALYSIS. IN A COUPLE OF SENTENCES TELL ME WHICH OPTION YOU FAVOR AND WHY?

According to this case, the Xerox's BIT system is more economical when volume is less than 1000 copies, so the small presses which focus on brochures and pamphlets are more likely to use Xerox's machines. Among 40000 printing presses in the United States, excluding the top 25 accounted for 25% of industry volume and 500 printers accounted for another 25% of industry volume, the remaining 50% are accounted for small companies. Among these 20000 small presses, considering the Xerox's market share is 50%, I estimate the 80% of this market choose the Xerox's machines and compute the number is 16000 through direct sales.

By establishing service centers, Xerox would enter into book production business and face some uncertain factors. According to Table E, the number of books is 624 million and on demand conversion potential is 37%, the volume that could be converted to "on demand" is approximately 231 million. The operating costs without (R&D) could be covered at production volume of 250000, if the Xerox occupies the 100% market share, I estimate the number of machines required is 924. So I think the number of machines that would be sold is no more than 900. What' more, If it makes success in book production industry, the share of machine market would be positively influenced on that number. However, if it fails in that area, the sales might be declined somewhat.

I favor the first option that selling the machines through direct sales. First, it's more effective because Xerox has already owned the fixed customers and large share in the market and access to them easily. Second, establishing service centers need a large volume to cover the

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