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How to Bring Down a Dictator

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How to bring down a dictator
By Abebe Gellaw | May 29, 2012

Editor's Note - The following paper by Abebe Gellaw was first published in March 2011. Given its timelessness, the paper is being published for the second time.
“Freedom is not free; you have to pay for it.” Anonymous
In May 2005, over 2 million Ethiopians came out in full force to demand change Imagine the power all these people wield collectively when they decide to act together for radical change, dignity and freedom
Nonviolent struggle is a smart option for Ethiopians to end tyranny As ordinary Egyptians have erupted in jubilant euphoria at Tahrir Square and on the streets of Egypt after the fall of the three-decade long dictator Hosni Mubarak, Ethiopians in and outside of the country have been keenly watching the wind of change from North Africa. We have witnessed history unfolding once again. When people are determined to be free, nothing can stop them. After an epic struggle against him, Mubarak had no choice but to surrender. The world is a better place with the fall of one more dictator. What a beautiful moment to celebrate and watch!
The momentous events in Egypt and Tunisia are testimony to the power of nonviolent struggle. When people are united and speak in one voice, nothing can stop them. No guns and tanks have stopped the peaceful revolutions that have ended tyranny and ushered in liberation to ordinary people in many countries across the world. Ethiopians also know what revolutions are like. But they have never tasted the sweetness of freedom and smelt the aroma of true liberation. The new revolution should be different from the tragic upheavals that have turned our country into a land of slaves brutalized and exploited by a handful of slave masters.
Revolution is not a new phenomenon in Ethiopia. In the last four decades alone, two toxic and bloody revolutions have occurred in our country. Both revolutions were fought in the name of a better Ethiopia and liberation but the tragic changes they have wrought made matters worse by turning our land into a much harsher prison where calling for justice and freedom is a capital crime.
The first revolution was hijacked by a band of ruthless military officers and the second one empowered not the people but a band of bandits and divisive ethnocrats that have been exploiting Ethiopia by pitting one ethnic group against another.
The 1974 Ethiopian revolution swept away the monarchy and the ruthless feudo-capitalist system that had reduced the masses to tenants with no title deeds whose fates were controlled by the archaic ruling class. Land belonged to the Emperor and his cronies making the great majority of the Ethiopian peasantry landless in their own land. It was mainly the anger toward the land tenure system and the hidden hunger in Northern Ethiopia that mobilized so many Ethiopians under the banner of land to the tiller and bread to the hungry. In a disastrous turn of events, a small group of junior military officers hijacked the revolution and emerged as the most formidable force that defined the course of the popular uprising. What started as a nonviolent movement for change ended in bloodbath when the army officers turned their guns against the idealist young men and women who had a better vision for their people. During the dark era of the Red Terror, hundreds of thousands of fellow Ethiopians were tortured and slaughtered in cold blood.
Then came another revolution that has drastically changed Ethiopia for a second time. This time round, the revolution was not a result of peaceful mass protests. It was the climax of a protracted bloody civil war that brought down the Mengistu military regime. The 1991 ethnic-based revolution was dictated by two northern rebel groups that speak the same language, i.e. the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TEPLF) and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF). With the full complicity of the TPLF, EPLF seceded Eritrea and declared independence. TPLF monopolistically controlled state power in Ethiopia and chose the colonial way of “power sharing” with its subservient puppet ethnic liberation groups it organised and created in its own image.
In the last two decades, the nation has been divided into two major groups, i.e. those who accept the supremacy and tyranny of the Meles and his cronies and those who have rejected the new TPLF-power arrangement. The pro-TPLF camp has been organised under various ethnic liberation fronts created, funded and controlled by none other than the TPLF. The anti-TPLF camp, represent those who have been totally excluded from the political arrangement. Anyone opposed to the TPLF dictatorship is labelled as “anti-peace and antipeople”.
As it stands now, the anti-TPLF camp, i.e. the entire people of Ethiopia, minus the ruling ethnic junta and its puppets, have only one parliamentary seat and two seats in local governments. In simple terms, while the TPLF controls almost everything in Ethiopia, the oppressed people of Ethiopia have been excluded from economic and political power. Within the hierarchical TPLF clan in power, Meles Zenawi enjoys absolute power as he is accountable neither to God nor to the people of Ethiopia. During the last fraudulent parliamentary election, TPLF and its puppets “won” by 99.6 per cent. The regional elections were even worse; TPLF took it all by over 99.999 per cent. This is not democracy but thievery at its worst.
The army is controlled by TPLF loyalists. Almost all the generals that have key positions in the army are TPLF members from one minority ethnic group and handpicked by Meles Zenawi. The economy is significantly dominated by two conglomerates. The billionaire Sheik Mohammed Al Amoudi, who has lost the respect of the Ethiopian people when he publicly declared to be a TPLF loyalist in 2005, has managed to have a significant share in many sectors of the economy. Nonetheless, the privileged Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT) has emerged as the unchallenged monopoly that pays neither income tax nor opens its accounts for external audit.
Nobody has access to EFFORT’s astounding wealth except Meles Zeanwi, his wife and his most trusted loyalists like masters of corruption Abadi Zemu, Arkebe Ekubay and Getachew Belay. After Meles appointed his wife, Azeb Mesfin, who is widely known as the first lady of corruption, as head of his business conglomerate, it turned out that EFFORT is nothing but a family business making billions of birr in annual profit. While EFFORT controls the fate of the Ethiopian economy, the stake of the TPLF in foreign aid is managed by two domineering NGOs called the Relief Society of Tigray (REST) and the Tigray Development Association (TDA). The exploitative ethnic apartheid Meles and his cohorts have imposed on the people of Ethiopia has reduced the nation into Africa’s most explosive powder keg that can erupt any time.
Ethiopia under Meles is more unjust than ever before. The poor people of Ethiopia are being exploited and the leeches in power have been sucking the blood of the nation. While in public TPLF preaches about state ownership of land, in reality it is leasing and selling the most virgin and irrigable land that can ensure food security for generations to come to foreign corporations mainly from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, India and China to grow food and cash crop for their own market. Under this illegal and unfair arrangement, poor peasants are being chased away from their birthplace. Out of desperation, so many peasants, who have lost their livelihoods, have ended up being slaves for the foreign entities and TPLF merchants exploiting their land and resources illegally.
Nearly ten million peasants and their families still survive on food aid. The handouts given to them are so little that they barely survive but still starve and suffer unimaginable indignity and humiliation. They can neither raise serious questions nor complain. If they do, the ruthless ruling party goons will punish them. They will lose food aid.
In cities across Ethiopia, the ruling TPLF clan and their cronies show off their loots. They compete among each other to show off their villas, luxury cars, import goods, gold and diamond. And yet, the greater majority cannot afford to eat. They cannot afford to have a decent meal once a day despite the fact that Zenawi’s first promise was to make Ethiopia a breadbasket, where food would be available to all. What he has created instead is a hell for the majority and a heaven for the selected few TPLF elite who dine and wine with no limits and relax at Al Amoudi’s Sheraton Luxury Collection at the expense of the poor people of Ethiopia. This is not the Ethiopia its citizens have been dreaming of. This is not the Ethiopia that any citizens want to be part of. That is the very reason why Ethiopians need to dismantle the exploitative ethnic apartheid and create a country where every Ethiopian is free and equal.
The time for a revolution is long overdue. TPLF’s ethnic apartheid has survived for the last two decades not because of its strength but because of the fact that the people of Ethiopia have not found inspirational leaders that are capable of uniting and mobilizing them for the epic battle for freedom and break off their chains and shackles once and for all. TPLF is a house of cards. It is fundamentally weak as it is founded on the ideologies of oppression, injustice, exploitation, domination, discrimination, corruption, thievery and fraud driven by a greedy colonialist mindset. The only reason why it is still riding roughshod over our people is because those who have stepped forward to be leaders of the freedom march have been preoccupied with their own infighting.
The time for self-promotion, empty promises and bravados must come to an end. Leaders as well as followers must focus on the real issues that really matter to ordinary Ethiopians. People who have resolved to change their destiny no longer need undemocratic leaders that preach about democracy and freedom. It is impossible to bring liberation without a clear vision. To be free of tyranny and oppression is a simple and powerful vision that can mobilize anyone suffering under the boots of Meles Zenawi and his cronies.
Land to the tiller and bread to the hungry are simple dreams for all. The end of injustice, indignity and tyranny should be a priority. For these to happen, credible leadership that never wavers must emerge not from the outdated elites but from the ordinary people. Ethiopians need leaders that speak the simple language of freedom, justice and equality. There is no need of calling every professor and doctor to be leaders as revolution is not an academic debate. There is also no need of recycling failed leaders that have shattered the aspirations and dreams of the people of Ethiopia to reclaim their dignity.
The momentous events in North Africa have reawakened the spirit of revolution in countries like Ethiopia where ruthless tyrants have been abusing, oppressing and exploiting their own people. Revolutions won’t come without a determination to revolt. Revolt against injustice is a heroic act. It is a holy cause that is worthy of sacrifice. Ethiopians have to be determined to liberate a square where they will vent out their anger, defy tyranny and declare their freedom. The day should come when all Ethiopians should sing “Free at last, free at last, thank God Almighty we are free at last….”
As we have witnessed in the unfolding history in North Africa, bringing down a reviled tyrant like Zenawi is not a difficult task when people start speaking in one voice. In the second part of this piece, I will try to deal with practical strategies of nonviolent struggle in the Ethiopian context.
Part II
In the first part of this piece, I started from the presumption that the vast majority of Ethiopians agree that their country is facing untold misery due to tyranny, corruption, discrimination, exploitation, injustice, abject poverty, rampant human rights violations and lack of accountability. The consensus on these popular grievances that have made the country an intolerable prison to the majority leads us to the fact that drastic socio-political change is badly needed to transform Ethiopia for the better. If revolutionary changes are indeed long overdue and inevitable, how then can Ethiopians bring down tyrant Meles Zenawi and end his reign of terror?
Before I try to make my points, I would like to offer two contrary views that come from the minds of two different people. The first viewpoint was made by Bereket Simon, one of the ugly faces of tyranny in Ethiopia. According to Meles Zenawi’s Goebbels, the kinds of changes that have swept away dictators in Tunisia and Egypt are impossible in Ethiopia. He told Capital newspaper recently that in Tunisia and Egypt “there are desperate people, people who have nowhere to turn to.”
“Our people are not desperate. Here we have a public that has seen hope, a public that enjoys a glimmer of hope more than ever [before] due to recent years’ economic growth and transformation,” he claimed. “We have embraced democracy, freedom of expression is widely exercised and the public can put in power whomever it wants through elections.” This is obviously what the Bereket Simons of Ethiopia want to believe. As it is quite evident, self-imposed ignorance is a painkiller for dictators that dread facing the reality under their own boots.
Contrary to what Bereket and Meles claim, Bill Richardson, former US Ambassador to the UN and Governor of New Mexico, has this to say: “Ignorance has always been the weapon of tyrants; enlightenment the salvation of the free.”
Last June, I had an opportunity to attend the Summer Institute for the Advanced Study of Nonviolent Conflict, at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts. It was as a result of this uniquely insightful opportunity and follow-up studies that I have gained some level of confidence to scrutinize why nonviolent struggle has failed to take roots in our country since the 1974 Ethiopian revolution and hence make a bold inquiry on how it can succeed.
It should be noted from the outset that this is not an effort to prescribe a single dose that can be taken to expunge a dangerous parasitical tyranny from Ethiopia’s body politic. Instead of trying to come up with a prescription, I herewith offer a few ideas based on my observations and understanding as a contribution to the ongoing discussions on ending tyranny and oppression in Ethiopia.
Quite obviously, getting rid of a militaristic tyrannical regime built by brutal rebels is neither simple nor impossible. It is not simple because Meles Zenawi has repeatedly proven to be a genocidal killer, who resorts to the use of lethal force to suppress every little protest and muffle the voices of dissent. And yet, the task of ending his misrule is not impossible because when an oppressed nation rises up in unison, no tyrant can survive the rage of the people as it has been proven time and again.
One of the misconceptions that has seriously undermined the popular struggle for dignity and freedom in Ethiopia for so long can be partly attributable to the fact that there are so many people who believe that nonviolent struggle has been tested and totally failed in Ethiopia. But in reality, nonviolent struggle is not only widely misunderstood but also untested in Ethiopia under Meles. Some political leaders and their followers, whose strategy of ousting the tyrant through his own bogus elections and a few disorganised protests failed to make any difference, have repeatedly declared the “end of peaceful struggle”. But the concept of “peaceful struggle” is by itself confusing as it is misinterpreted as being inaction, submissiveness, obedience and pacificism. For the sake of clarity, it should be noted that nonviolent struggle is more akin to civil resistance, people power movements or unarmed insurrections than obediently running in unfair elections that are deceptively designed to create a semblance of democratic legitimacy to brutal oppressors like Meles Zenawi and the rulers of Burma.
Professor Gene Sharp, one of the leading authorities on modern nonviolent struggle, noted: “In conflicts between a dictatorship, or other oppression, and a dominated population, it is necessary for the populace to determine whether they wish simply to condemn the oppression and protest against the system. Or, do they wish actually to end the oppression, and replace it with a system of greater freedom, democracy, and justice?” This is an important point because at times people may think that condemning oppressors is an end that is sufficient enough to bring down a tyrannical regime. Even in our case, there are so many people in and outside of the country who are preoccupied with the task of condemning TPLF without waging a well-organised and sustainable struggle that is targeted and aimed at ending tyranny.
By their very nature, tyrannical regimes are vulnerable and sick. This is due to the fact oppressive regimes are very costly and their survival hinges upon their security and military apparatus that consume a huge chunk of the national budget. It is quite obvious that no nation in any part of the world gives consent to get abused, dehumanised, robbed, exploited, and oppressed by a handful of corrupt tyrants and their cronies. It is because of this very fact that the concept of nonviolent struggle or civil resistance, as opposed to the use of violence for political ends, is based on civil disobedience and nonviolent actions against oppressors. When people wage a sustained civil resistance against a tyrannical regime, the financial, security, political and moral cost of violent suppression increases and becomes more and more unsustainable. While suppressing disorganised and spontaneous protests is an easy job to do for any tyrannical regime, using violence to crack down on a well-organised and cohesive movement usually produces the opposite result and can add momentum to people power movements especially when the popular uprising is deep and widespread. The collective actions and disobedience of citizens determined to win their freedom can make a country totally ungovernable to tyrants given the fact that the controlling capacity of any regime is limited. The more people come out in protest and defy the regime and its oppressive laws, the more power shifts toward the resisters which can in turn lead to a significant level of loyalty shift.
Nonviolent struggle is a systematic way of waging and escalating coordinated and organised mass actions and campaigns using the power of mass mobilisation, protest, persuasion, civil disobedience and disruptive measures that can cripple the regime. It has so many innovative techniques, tactics and strategies that have proven to be effective in ousting many tyrannical and oppressive regimes around the world. While the dramatic revolutions in Eastern Europe, Egypt or Tunisia appeared to be spontaneous to television viewers across the world, the reality is that so many passionate activists that played significant roles in igniting and building the momentum of the movements were working behind the scenes. Waging a successful nonviolent struggle, requires some level of mass mobilization, organisation, strategic planning, discipline and leadership that will give the movement a purposeful direction and devise different tactics and strategies.
It is quite obvious that neither Egypt nor Tunisia is similar to Ethiopia. It is indeed true to say that Ethiopia has its peculiar problems that are more complex than the average nations suffering under tyrannical regimes. The worst part of our political reality is the level of deep ethnic division and hostility that has been deliberately created and fomented by Meles Zenawi and his trusted lieutenants in order to sustain their tyrannical divide and rule system. There are over 90 political parties in Ethiopia, most of whom are ethnic “parties” created and controlled by the TPLF. Despite all that, when a nonviolent struggle starts in earnest, the calls for change and freedom mostly make it possible for different groups to form broad-based coalitions and narrow differences with a view to ending oppression as it has been witnessed in many cases.
People living under oppression share similar discontents and grievances which can fuel and energise their struggle for freedom. Suffering under a corrupt and oppressive regime inevitably begets widespread discontent that can easily be turned into a popular uprising for change. It is because of this fact that regime change in oppressed countries rarely come without mass protests, uprisings, revolts and revolutions as the stake of losing the reigns of power is too high for those who are ruthlessly and criminally abusing, exploiting and oppressing their own people. Tyranny cannot be possible without abuse of power and the exertion violent force. As a result, in the process of the struggle against oppression, sacrifices such as being killed, injured, jailed, displaced or being forced into exile, can be inevitable consequences for many people because tyrants rarely relinquish power and concede defeat without a stiff resistance. Compared to armed struggle, however, the cost of waging a well-coordinated and organised nonviolent struggle is much less minimal.
Civil resistance against Meles Zenawi
Since 1991, we have witnessed so many half-hearted efforts and uncoordinated activities but we have never witnessed the rise of a formidable movement, be it armed or unarmed, that is capable of bringing down the tyrannical regime of Meles Zenawi. It is for this very reason why ordinary Ethiopians, leaders as well as opinion makers need to start debating and devising ways of building a movement capable of undermining, disobeying, defying, cracking, crippling and ultimately dismantling the tyrannical regime through mass mobilisation and civil resistance.
The struggle may take a few days, months or years. No matter how long it takes the resilience and sustainability of a nonviolent struggle is a crucial factor in weakening and crippling the regime. Unless the struggle against the tyrannical regime is ignited and escalated in earnest, the regime may not face the stress and strains necessary to make it easier to bring it down. Those who are expecting that the people will suddenly erupt like a volcano to get rid of the regime must be committing an act of oversimplification because it is much easier to violently suppress a spontaneous revolt than a well-coordinated and organised movement that has well-defined objectives and cohesive leadership.
Nonviolent struggle is not obedience to oppressors nor is it waiting for dictators to reform and step down out of their own volition. It is rather a war waged through civilian uprising, resistance, campaigns, mobilizations and disobedience. For a nonviolent struggle to succeed in bringing about the desired outcome, it must normally be well-coordinated, organised, planned, strategized, unified and sustained for a length of time.
In the last two decades, nothing that resembles a civil resistance has been waged in Ethiopia. The truth of the matter is that tyrant Meles Zenawi has not survived in power for over two decades because of the strength of his army or his Gestapo-like security apparatus but because of facing weak adversaries that have neither realistic strategies to end Zenawi’s tyranny nor a clear vision for change.
The lack of a cohesive opposition and serious movements capable of converting the deep popular discontent into a movement for change has given the Meles regime a great advantage without a fight. In most cases, certain individuals usually make themselves indispensible and relegate their causes to a less important status. As a result of this fact, the tyrant has never been seriously challenged for 20 years despite the fact that his reign of terror is extremely vulnerable as it is oppressive, corrupt, discriminatory, unjust, undemocratic, unconstitutional and illegitimate that is not even willing to respect the letters of its own constitution.
It may be true to say that the May 2005 elections were serious challenges. Millions of Ethiopians were agitated for change. But the opposition lost the rare political capital as the people were not mobilized into a movement, which is more difficult to suppress and dismantle. Before the agitated mass were organised into a formidable political movement, which could have shaken off the yoke of oppression by now, the leaders wavered and started dismantling and undermining one another. The effect of the blunder is still felt as so many Ethiopians became disillusioned and lost faith in almost all the leaders that were supposed to lead the march for freedom.
In the last two decades, the majority of opposition political parties pursued strategies that are contrary to the very concept of nonviolent struggle. Almost all opposition political parties have adopted a strategy of “ousting” the tyrant through his bogus elections. They made futile efforts to win stage-managed elections that have been designed to produce the same result again and again. So in all the elections, they “lost” the fake elections lending the regime a semblance of democratic legitimacy. The 2010 elections were the worst for opposition parties including those who had willingly presented themselves as “loyal opposition” and signed deals with Meles to make the elections “free and fair.” In reality, the elections were over in 2008 when the TPLF and its puppet parties took all local government seats that were deliberately expanded to over three million. The regime took all kinds of oppressive measures to make sure that its tyranny goes unchallenged. That was followed by the parliamentary and regional elections. The results were the same. As it stands today, most opposition political parties are fundamentally weak and bankrupt as a result of internal and external factors. They have been suffering from deficit of smart leadership and clear visions.
One of the most important methods of waging nonviolent struggle is noncooperation aimed at denying the regime its perceived legitimacy, control, authority and power over the oppressed masses. If the adversaries of the regime run in highly restrictive elections without even having a right to hold election rallies and unfettered access to public media, the outcome of cooperating with the regime can only end up consolidating the power of the regime.
In Ethiopia under Meles, the only time a nearly competitive election was held in Addis Ababa and some regions was in 2005. Opposition political parties were at least allowed to hold rallies, canvass in the regions and there was an air of open debates. TPLF had suffered a humiliating defeat in Addis and many places. Even then, it was evidently clear that Meles and his cohorts were not ready to accept defeat graciously. It is obvious that tyranny and democratic elections cannot co-exist together. This disturbing reality calls into question the strategy of opposition parties in sheepishly running in fake elections as a means of bringing about “regime change” or widening a closed political space. The score card may be shocking. But the net gain of the opposition as a result of repeatedly running in TPLF’s show elections has proven to be fatal. TPLF and its puppets hold 546 seats in “parliament”. The entire opposition group has a single seat. In over 3 million local and regional government seats the opposition has only two. And yet, some of these opposition parties seem to waiting for another “election.”
It should be noted that though TPLF is a ruthlessly oppressive force, it has strategies and tactics to quell dissent against its misrule. TPLF’s negative “success” is partly because of the fact that its leaders think and act with evil strategic calculations to sustain their corrupt tyranny, domination and projects of oppression. As a result of this fact, we have an entrenched tyranny in Ethiopia making billions of dollars from its privileged businesses facing fragmented, weak, disillusioned and disorganised opposition groups that have almost no strategic planning and minimum common agenda to unify for a cause.
As we have witnessed over the years, none of these political parties have adopted strategic nonviolent action, which requires knowledge and awareness, as a means of challenging and dislodging the entrenched tyranny of Meles Zenawi. Because of this undeniable fact, Zenawi’s tyrannical rule is still intact without facing any formidable challenges in the last two decades. One can claim that bringing down Zenawi has not begun yet in earnest given the fact that sporadic resistance and protests in Brussels and Washington DC will never be enough to win freedom for all.
Dynamic of civil resistance
At the Fletcher summer school that I mentioned above, Jack Duval, President of the International Center for Nonviolent Conflict, gave a talk on the dynamics of civil resistance. He contended: “When the people deprive an oppressor of their consent, it reduces the perceived legitimacy of the system. When people say we do not cooperate with the state of affairs any longer, because we think it is unjust and wrong that reduces the perceived legitimacy of the system and engenders a contest for legitimacy. When enough people refuse to cooperate and withdraw their consent, the cost of holding control by the oppressive regime goes up which automatically renders the system unsustainable….” In fact, that is precisely the kind of consideration that must be taken into account to wage an effective nonviolent struggle.
The TPLF regime has repeatedly expressed its love for what it called the “silent majority.” After the 2005 elections, TPLF has made significant efforts to undermine the desire for change. It has crippled civic society groups, closed down over 16 newspapers and expanded its tentacles. It also systematically used intimidation, threats and oppressive laws to silence the people so that they would be safely categorised under its “silent majority.” But in reality, they know full well that the so-called “silent majority” is a volatile and explosive group.
The withdrawal of consent is one of the pivotal moments of a nonviolent struggle. When “consent” is clearly, publicly and boldly withdrawn at a massive scale, the controlling power of the regime will be inevitably undermined making the regime more unstable and vulnerable. Civil disobedience can effectively deny TPLF the semblance of legitimacy it has created through deception, corruption, use of force, threats, repressions and bogus democratic elections that are designed to sustain oppression and inequality.
Key elements of waging a successful civil resistance movement
According to Dr. Peter Ackerman, one of the leading experts and financiers of civil resistance movements, there are three key elements necessary to wage a successful civil resistance movement aimed at ending tyranny and oppression in countries like Ethiopia and Burma. In a 2009 video, Dr. Ackerman has the following to say on the elements of waging a civil resistance movement. The first thing is unity. A civil resistance movement must unify the widest possible spectrum of society: young, old, all ethnic groups, all religious groups, all economic strata, around a limited set of achievable goals, and designate for the moment a leadership that has legitimacy to mobilize all these groups in service of those goals. The second thing that’s required is planning. There has to be capacity for that leadership to look objectively at what its capabilities are, how it can mobilize, what tactics are at its disposal, how to sequence those tactics in a way that has the biggest negative impact on the opponent….
That planning needs to go on at an offensive and defensive level. Defensive level means there are things you should anticipate…. For example, you might have an oppression that might end up killing some of the leadership. There needs to be planning for redundancy of leadership….
And then the last of the three is nonviolent discipline…. The reason I use the term discipline is to emphasize that it’s a strategic choice, not a moral one. Because civil resistance can’t succeed unless you induce loyalty shifts and multiple defections from the other side that basically weakens the power base [of the regime]….So unity, planning, and nonviolent discipline are the ingredients that are sort of the necessary conditions for a successful civil resistance movement. And I think, expressed this way, they transcend all cultures and all time.
It appears that the three key elements of civil resistance movement are still missing in Ethiopia. As a result of the deficits of unity, strategic planning and leadership, Ethiopians have not been able to seriously challenge and confront the tyrannical regime. If Ethiopians are serious about winning their freedom, a formidable and all-inclusive civil resistance movement must be born without any delay.
In the last part of this series, I will try to touch upon ways of building a movement, devising realistic tactics and strategies that may be used to wage an effective civil resistance in Ethiopia in order to bring down Meles Zenawi.
Part III
The winds of change that has been rocking the Arab world have once again confirmed the fact that every tyranny is a house built on sand. Unlike rock solid democratic systems that are built on the consent of the people, evil tyrannical regimes are founded on brutality, oppression, corruption, domination, intimidation and abuse of power. When a ferocious wind of change starts, they never stand a chance. They crumble into pieces and fall into the dustbins of history.
As dictators are falling one by one, those still clinging to power are doing their best to show that they are in a better shape than their fallen comrades. Some of the ruthless despots are even showing their softer sides. In Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain, the corrupt autocracies have been doling out more welfare benefits to people demanding freedom.
In Ethiopia, the Meles regime has announced on the state-controlled media that a special taskforce has begun operation to evacuate hundreds of Ethiopian nationals stranded in Libya. This is indeed very unusual. But the news they don’t tell us is that the majority of those fellow Ethiopians in such dire need of rescue have rejected the gesture of “kindness” from a very unkind tyrant they are fleeing from.
It may seem a joke but these Ethiopians stranded in Libya, Somalia and other tough places, after crisscrossing so many rough terrains, deserts and treacherous territories, have been fleeing from the same people who are out to rescue them. What Meles and his rescue team failed to realise is that the vast majority of Ethiopians have been stranded in their own land, in their own Ethiopia. Eighty million people are in need of rescue from Zenawi’s ruthless and exploitative tyranny. That is why so many people are fleeing; running away and dying to get out of the indignity they are facing in their own country. For the desperate people of Ethiopia, their country has proven to be worse than being stranded in a war zone and dying in harsh deserts and turbulent oceans.
Dictators like Meles don’t get it. They are deliberately ignorant and narcissistic that cannot see the real world beyond their noses. Meles Zenawi never wants to confront the reality because he wants Ethiopians to live in fear. He wants us to be hopeless. He wants us to feel powerless and dispossessed. He wants us to surrender our dreams for a better tomorrow. He wants us to lose our confidence. He wants us not to believe in freedom. He wants us not to stand in unison but to get divided and weak. He wants us to accept his crimes, oppression, abuse, manipulation and corruption. He wants us to die in silence. And yet, he fears our unity and the collective power that ordinary people are wielding. He fears the tide of a popular movement for change. After all, cowardice is an enduring hallmark of tyrants who dread the freedom of others.
Building a movement
In the aftermath of the May 2005 rigged elections, Meles ordered his army, by his own admission, “to put down the insurrection.” After brutally killing and maiming unarmed peaceful protesters and detaining over 40,000 people in harsh concentration camps, he ridiculed the peaceful marches he turned into a bloodbath. “This is not your run-of-themill demonstration. This is an Orange Revolution gone wrong,” he told foreign correspondents in November 2005.
One of the reasons why the regime could easily quash the popular desire for change was lack of a formidable movement. A movement is not a spontaneous and disorganised uprising or mass protest. Professor Donatella della Porta defines a movement as “an organised and sustained effort of a collectivity of interrelated individuals, groups and organisations to promote or resist social change with the use of public protest activities.” One can deduce from this that a nonviolent movement aimed at ending oppression is a purposeful, organised and sustained mobilisation whose ultimate objective is to free a nation from unjust, and oppressive systems.
A nonviolent movement should not be spontaneous regardless of the fact that a spontaneous mass action may provide the trigger that can cause an unexpected uprising. As every popular uprising does not necessarily bring about change, if a nonviolent movement is to succeed, spontaneity should give way to an organised and sustained mobilisation which can be done effectively where the groundwork has already been laid in anticipation of triggers.
Building a movement is not an easy task. It requires common vision, broad-based unity, strategic planning, some sort of organisational structure and widely accepted leadership. Almost all the objective conditions necessary to start a serious movement for radical change exist in Ethiopia. There is an almost universal consensus that the domination of the Tigrian People’s Liberation Front led by Meles Zenawi, his wife and their trusted cronies is the root cause of our misery. None of the changes that people had expected after the fall of the Mengistu regime in 1991 have happened. The only visible change is the oppressive domination imposed on the Ethiopian people by Meles and his cronies, who are accumulating wealth beyond our imagination. There is widespread discontent as a result of grinding poverty, unemployment, abhorrent discrimination, exploitation, corruption and human rights violations in the face of an expanding security apparatus that has been designed to sustain fear and terror.
Despite the fact that there are so many groups and parties that are avowed to fight the tyrannical regime all these groups have not yet built a serious movement aimed at freeing all Ethiopians, from the bondage of tyranny. One of the reasons why the cruel Apartheid system collapsed was because so many whites, who were supposed to be privileged citizens, began to question and challenge their own system, a sentiment which spread up to the upper echelon of the Apartheid regime that realised that the horrible system was no longer sustainable. A movement that can be appealing to all including those who are opportunistically oppressing their fellow citizens has a greater chance to succeed than one that intimidates and threatens any section of the populace.
According to Dr. Janet Cherry, a leading South African activist-scholar, a movement must have a cause or a trigger and a clear vision appealing to a broad-section of the populace. It should have an organisational base, a widely accepted and respected leadership, a strategy and broad-based unity among a wide array of allies committed to the common cause. If a formidable movement is to emerge in Ethiopia, it should be appealing to broader sections of the society irrespective of their ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious, social and political affinity. Oromos, Amharas, Tigrians, Afaris, Somalis, Harraris, Gambelans, Sidamas, Kembatas, Gurages…Orthodox Christians, Muslims, Protestants, Catholics or atheists. Men, women, young people, the aged,…sympathizers of OLF, ONLF, Medrek, ARENA, AEUP, EDP, Ginbot 7, UDJ…students, teachers, blue collar workers, peasant farmers, business people, poor, middle class, rich…all ordinary people without distinction should be able to be mobilized under simple visions that appeal to every Ethiopian. No one should dominate or try to take ownership of a nonviolent movement for freedom. It should be a movement of ordinary Ethiopians united against the oppression and indignity they are facing in their own country. Their common vision should be clear; i.e. to make Ethiopia free from oppression, inequality, corruption, tyranny, grinding poverty and indignity. It should be a movement to reclaim our country, freedom and human dignity. It should be a movement of all against a handful of criminal tyrants.
One of the challenges that mostly arise in a struggle is the question of leadership. Every ambitious political party and glory-seeker individual may want to lead. But those who want to serve are the ones who give greater weight for the cause than their own self-interests and glory. The majority of people who have led successful struggles and helped dismantle oppression are those who have proven to be selfless and unwaveringly committed to the causes of freedom. Mandela, Ghandi, Martin Luther King Jr., Lech Walesa or Vaclav Havel, have not fought for their own glory. They have not deliberately made themselves indispensable but their unshakable resolve to win freedom at any cost has made them globally respected and revered.
Those who aspire to lead the march for freedom must remember the words of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. He said: “If you want to be important—wonderful. If you want to be recognized—wonderful. If you want to be great—wonderful. But recognize that he who is greatest among you shall be your servant. That’s a new definition of greatness.” Simple and humble people with clear messages that resonate with ordinary people have a compelling chance of being great leaders of a nonviolent struggle than some of the haughty politicians that have come and gone in Ethiopian politics. Leaders must be unifiers that inspire the masses more than anything else. Those who do not have this essential quality of leadership must not dare to lead in the forefront because once a movement against a ruthless tyrannical regime is started in earnest we cannot afford to blink. We need to remember the fact that Kinjit had a great chance of developing into a formidable movement. But it is now a teachable moment that can lend invaluable lessons to learn from.
Strategy and tactics
The ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu is credited as saying: “Tactic without strategy is the noise before defeat.” Like armed conflict, strategies and tactics devised to win battles are critically important. Those who are devising and employing strategy and tactics must know what they are doing and they should be able to make realistic expectations in terms of positive and negative outcomes of their decisions and actions.
There is a difference between strategy and tactics. The leading expert on modern nonviolent struggle, Professor Gene Sharp, identifies two strategies, i.e. grand strategy and campaign strategies. Grand strategy is an “overall plan for conducting the struggle that makes it possible to anticipate how the struggle as a whole should proceed.” The grand strategy should be based on the vision of the movement and need also analytically consider many complex issues beyond ending tyranny such as considering a viable transition if the system collapses.
Campaign strategies are targeted at the success of a certain campaign. If the campaign, for instance, is aimed at achieving a nation-wide election boycott, there should be a strategy in order to effectively reject inconsequential elections like the ones we have been having in the last twenty years.
Civil resistance is a knowledge-based struggle. Activists and leaders involved in nonviolent struggles should equip themselves at least with the basics of how to wage an effective struggle that will ultimately subvert and dismantle the tyrannical regime. They should be able to devise smart strategy and tactics to prevail over the violent agents of oppression. Small group studies, discussions, brainstorming, active communications, knowledge and material sharing among those who are passionate about the movement is an important element in the struggle. As Gene Sharp puts it:
“The leaders need to become experts in nonviolent struggle. Knowledge about nonviolent struggle also needs to be spread widely. Greater knowledge and understanding of the nonviolent techniques throughout the population will increase the difficulty for the opponents to “behead” the movement by imprisoning or killing the leaders. Leaders serve as spokespeople and offer, organise, and can implement solutions to problems. Leadership can be by group, committee, individual, or a combination of these. In some cases, it has been difficult to identify leadership in such movements.”
Successes as well as defeats are integral parts of any forms of struggles. The success of a nonviolent movement can be partly attributed to strategies and tactics employed to win the battle. While tactics also require careful planning, they are limited in scope. Tactics are limited plans of actions and they determine, as Sharp noted, how particular groups of resisters shall act in specific situations. “A good strategy remains impotent unless it is put into action with sound tactics,” he underlined.
Nonviolent strategies and tactics that have proven to be effective in one setting may not necessarily be successful in a different setting. It is imperative that those who are involved in organising and leading a movement at various levels should be aware of the unique environment and situations they find themselves in. In any conflict, including nonviolent ones, situations may change frequently and drastically. Those who have been providing some sort of leadership and organising have to be quick thinkers that adapt their strategy and tactics according to the dictates of the time and changing circumstances.
The end of fear
When ordinary Egyptians got mobilized against the Mubarak regime, each and every individual was freed from the shackles of fear even before the tyrant fell down. One of the cyber activists that made significant contributions to the struggle against Mubarek was the tech savvy Google executive Wael Ghonim said the major victory in the struggle was the defeat of fear. When people stopped being intimidated by the firepower of the brutal regime, nothing could hold them back from reclaiming their freedom and dignity. In a recent TEDx event, Ghonim said: “Everyone was silent. Almost everyone was scared. There were only a few brave Egyptians going to protests, getting beaten up and arrested. But the majority were scared…. Dictators cannot live without force. They want people to live in fear. That psychology of fear had worked for so many years….The Internet has played a great role to [allow them] to speak up their minds….Egyptians have proven that the power of the people is much bigger than the people in power.”
The basic rights enshrined in the constitution must be respected. Organising, peaceful assembly, protesting injustice, petitioning authorities, freedom of expression…should be fully respected. A regime that does not respect its own constitution is unconstitutional and unfit to govern. People have a legitimate right to demand the respect of their basic rights and to live in freedom without fear of persecution and extrajudicial killings. The constitution states, though on paper, that power belongs to the people. An unjustified fear of the power of people is contrary to the spirit of the constitution.
Every Ethiopian, in and outside of the country, should stop fearing their evil tormentors. They are only agents of criminals in power who are waiting their assured place in the stinky rubbish bin of history. When people think and act fearlessly in unison, they always destroy the barrier of fear that brutal tyrants have erected to prevent them from living in freedom and dignity.
We Ethiopians have clear choices at this critical juncture in our history. We can either cry in silence or rise up and act collectively to end the humiliation and indignity we have been suffering under the Meles regime. The choice is ours.
In our struggle for freedom, let us remember the inspiring words of Nelson Mandela: “I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear.”…...

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