...Financial Risk: Key Fundamentals and Case Studies Leonard Chumo, CFA, FRM Strathmore University GARP Chapter Meeting 29th July 2011 Agenda 1. Background 2. Credit Risk and the Case of Washington Mutual 3. Operational Risk and the Case of Rogue Brokers in Kenya and Barings 4. Market Risk and the Case of LTCM 5. Liquidity Risk and the Case of Northern Rock 6. Q&A BACKGROUND Main Types of Financial Risk Risk Type Definition Credit Risk The potential that a bank's borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. Market Risk The risk that movements in market prices will adversely affect the value of on- or off-balance sheet positions. The risk is attributable to movements in interest rates, foreign exchange (FX) rates, equity prices or prices of commodities. Operational Risk Risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or from external events. The definition includes legal risk, but excludes reputational and strategic risk. Liquidity Risk Liquidity is the ability to fund increases in assets and meet obligations as they become due. It is crucial to the ongoing viability of any organization. Source: Financial Stability Institute CREDIT RISK AND THE CASE OF WASHINGTON MUTUAL Sources of Credit Risk Apart from traditional types of loans, credit risk can also be found in a bank's: Investment portfolio ...
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...1 LIQUIDITY RISK MANAGEMENT: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN CONVENTIONAL AND ISLAMIC BANKS OF BANGLADESH Banks conventionally fulfill the supreme responsibility of being a financial intermediary between the deficit and surplus unit of the economy. Liquidity risk refers to the excessive transaction cost, excessive loss of value and excessive exertion of time that banks have to face at the time of allocating liquidity to the third party when stipulated. Because of the unique constitutional features and regulatory conformity with the Shariah principle Islamic banks have to exert much more to manage liquidity. The core objective of this very research is to assess the extent of liquidity risk associated with financial institutions especially banks and to evaluate the concurrent liquidity risk management (LRM) along with a comparative analysis between conventional and Islamic banks of Bangladesh. The researcher has tried to investigate the significance of firm's size, net working capital, return on equity, capital adequacy and return on assets on liquidity Risk Management in case of Conventional and Islamic banks of Bangladesh. Secondary data had been the major stimulus of the research covering five year 20062010. For Islamic banks, a model estimation to predict the liquidity risk level was proven to be successful but the module failed to generate the desired result in case of the conventional banks. Moreover, net working capital in case of Conventional banks...
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...like to thank my Final year project’s supervisor [NAME], who has been an inspiration and provided me information regarding banking instability, which proved to be very useful in completing this project. I also appreciate the hard work and efforts of my friends and former colleagues who has provided me with useful information / data which helped me choose this topic. PREFACE This research paper is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for Bachelor of Business Administration (HONS) Banking and Finance. Our supervisor for this research is [PROFESSOR’S NAME]. The final year project is made solely by the authors yet it is based on the research of the others and the resources are quoted in references below. There is very little study about the determinants of banking instability specifically in Malaysia. In order to conduct the research I have chosen; reserve, interest rate,...
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...distressed sales of assets at prices well below their true value. This deviation of asset price is a key amplifier during financial crisis and often acts as a contagion, spreading illiquidity problems to firms in similar industries (Caballero 2009). In the 2008 crisis, large losses for a bank would force this bank to sell assets at distressed prices. This process would force other banks to re-value the same assets at a lower price and would cause them to sell these assets and prices below fundamental value, incurring losses (French 2010). “Compared to non-bank, bank failure contagion [as a result of distressed sales] appears faster; is more likely to spread to a larger proportion of the industry; is likely to lead to a larger percentage of failures, and is more likely to spill over to other sectors”(Kaufman 1994). Fire sales typically occur in a single firm and then the decreased liquidity cascades to other firms in the same industry. In the case of financial institutions, fire sales often spread to other sectors of the economy as well. Fire sales can be thought of as positive feedback loops; financial distress forces firms to sell assets, which causes the prices of these assets to depreciate. This process leads to increased financial distress (Shleifer 2011). In this way, fire sales can depreciate asset prices and decrease economy-wide liquidity to the point of having a significant negative effect on an economy. Macroeconomic Effects The literature discussing the negative macroeconomic...
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...and the Gold Standard Era (1880-1993), comparable only to the Great Depression. Nevertheless, the financial crisis that started in the summer of 2007 came as a great surprise to most people. What initially was seen as difficulties in the US subprime mortgage market, rapidly escalated and spilled over to financial markets all over the world. The crisis has changed the financial landscape worldwide and its costs are yet to be evaluated. The purpose of this paper is to concisely survey the literature on financial crises. Despite its severity and its ample effects, the current crisis is similar to past crises in many dimensions. In a recent series of papers, Reinhart and Rogoff (2008a, 2008b, 2009) document the effects of banking crises using an extensive data set of high and middle-to-low income countries. They find that systemic banking crises are typically preceded by credit booms and asset price bubbles. This is consistent with Herring and Wachter (2003) who show that many financial crises are the result of bubbles in real estate markets. In addition, Reinhart and Rogoff find that crises result, on average, in a 35% real drop in housing prices spread over a period of 6 years. Equity prices fall 55% over 3 ½ years. Output falls by 9% over two years, while unemployment rises 7% over a period of 4 years. Central government debt rises 86% compared to its pre-crisis level. While Reinhart and Rogoff stress that the major episodes are sufficiently far apart that...
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...Stress in liquidity is at the heart of any banking crisis in history. During the financial crisis of 2007-09, funding liquidity risk caused the collapse of interbank markets, which became the focus of authorities’ attention at restoring order. Accordingly, central banks and other regulatory bodies world-wide have been evolving prudential liquidity norms in order to impart stability to financial systems. Apart from implementing newer norms on liquidity, they have been devising ways of assessing objectively liquidity conditions in the markets. As an end to this objective, various central banks have started identifying the indicators of liquidity and preparing a composite index thereof in order to have a bird’s eye view of liquidity conditions across financial markets. In this study, a systemic liquidity index (SLI) is constructed considering prevailing rate variables across different financial markets in India. The SLI, so developed, is appropriately validated for its function as a metric for measuring systemic liquidity and its implications on the banks’ performance. Introduction “Unfortunately the word ‘liquidity’ has so many facets that is often counter-productive to use it without further and closer definition” - Charles Goodhart (Banque de France, 2008) The financial crisis of 2007-09 originated in the relatively small subprime lending market of the US, but engulfed the world financial markets very quickly and had devastating effect on the global economy. One of the important...
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...Consultative Group to Assist the Poorest (CGAP) Working Group on Savings Mobilization RURAL BANK OF PANABO (RBP), PHILIPPINES (CASE STUDY) Ulrich Wehnert Eschborn, 1999 CGAP Working Group on Savings Mobilization CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHS 1 CONTEXT 1.1 1.2 Macroeconomic context iv v 1 1 Context of the financial sector 1 1.2.1 Role of the central bank 1 1.2.2 Regulation and supervision 2 1.2.3 General development and characteristics of the financial sector 3 1.2.4 The impact of the Asian financial and economic crisis on the financial sector4 1.2.5 Outreach and characteristics of state interventions 4 1.2.6 Social security system 5 Social and socio-cultural context Classification of the macroeconomic, financial and socio-cultural context 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 11 11 11 12 1.3 1.4 2 INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS 2.1 2.2 General characteristics of the Rural Bank of Panabo Institutional type, governance and organizational structure 2.2.1 Institutional type and governance 2.2.2 Organizational structure 2.2.3 Lessons learned in institutional type, governance and organizational structure 2.2.3.1 Success factors 2.2.3.2 Limitations and risks 2.2.3.3 Possibilities of replication 2.3 Demand-oriented savings products and technologies 12 2.3.1 Characteristics of demand-oriented savings products and savings technologies 12 2.3.2 Design of demand-oriented savings products 13 2.3.3 Procedures to introduce demand-oriented savings products 13 2.3.4 Lessons learned...
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...896N1 - Multinational Financial Management The impact of the global financial crisis on the Multinational bank funding and its liquidity CandNo: 109098 Tutor: Dr Bruce Hearn, Dr Javad Izadi Zadeh Darjezi and Miss Madina Tash Date of Submission: 7th March 2013 Abstract This paper analyses the impact of the global financial crisis on the Multinational bank funding and its liquidity. In analysis of several articles, under the global financial crisis, multinational banks change their funding model to the stable wholesale funding and reduce the lending when the parent banks are financially weak. For its liquidity, multinational bank subsidiaries can rely on support from the bank group they belong to and therefore tend to hold a slightly lower liquidity. Content Abstract 1 Introduction 3 Literature Review 3 Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 Reference 6 Appendix 7 Introduction As the financial crisis existed through the fabric of the world’s financial system in the third quarter of 2007, it became clear that firm access to finance was going to be an early victim, including Multinational banks. During the local crisis, strong parent banks used their internal capital market to provide subsidiaries with capital and liquidity (Haas and Lelyveld, 2010). Domestic banks rely to a great extent on local funding, whereas an affiliate of a multinational bank can exploit both local funding possibilities and the funding capacity of its parent bank, all of which are embedded in...
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...governments to smooth out their spending by mitigating the cyclical pattern of tax revenues and to invest in infrastructure projects. Banks directly provide a substantial amount of credit in the U.S., but, unlike in almost any other economy, financial markets are the ultimate providers of most credit. Liquidity provision. Businesses and households need to have protection against unexpected needs for cash. Banks are the main direct providers of liquidity, both through offering demand deposits that can be withdrawn any time and by offering lines of credit. Further, banks and their affiliates are at the core of the financial markets, offering to buy and sell securities and related products at need, in large volumes, with relatively modest transaction costs. This latter role is particularly important in the U.S., given the dominance of markets, but is often under-appreciated. Risk management services. Finance allows businesses and households to pool their risks from exposures to financial market and commodity price risks. Much of this is provided by banks through derivatives transactions. These have gotten a bad name due to excesses in the run-up to the financial crisis but the core derivatives activities provide valuable risk management services. Many argue that...
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...THE CAMEL RATING SYSTEM IN BANKING SUPERVISION A CASE STUDY Uyen Dang Arcada University of Applied Sciences International Business 2011 DEGREE THESIS Arcada Degree Programme: Identification number: Author: Title: Supervisor (Arcada): Commissioned by: Abstract: International Business 10312 Uyen Dang The CAMEL rating system in banking supervision. A case study Andreas Stenius Banking supervision has been increasingly concerned due to significant loan losses and bank failures from the 1980s till now. In the light of the banking crisis in recent years worldwide, CAMEL is a useful tool to examine the safety and soundness of banks, and help mitigate the potential risks which may lead to bank failures. The research has been conducted as a case study of American International Assurance Vietnam (AIA). It aims to determine whether the CAMEL framework plays a crucial role in banking supervision. Furthermore, the purpose is to identify the benefits as well as drawbacks which the CAMEL system brings to AIA. The research problem was explored by quantitatively analyzing a bank’s overall performance. The paper firstly starts to collect theory relevant to the empirical research, and then draws conclusions from the findings by relating them back to the literature stated in the early stage. Although this study is based on collected data and numerical figures, it is a qualitative study. The findings revealed that CAMEL rating system is a useful supervisory tool in the U.S. CAMEL analysis...
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...Current financial crisis Economic growth involves metamorphosis of the financial system. Forms of banks and bank money change. These changes, if not addressed, leave the banking system vulnerable to crisis. There is no greater challenge in economics than to understand and prevent financial crises. The financial crisis of 2007-2008 provides the opportunity to reassess our understanding of crises. All financial crises are at root bank runs, because bank debt—of all forms—is vulnerable to sudden exit by bank debt holders. The current crisis raises issues for crisis theory. And, empirically, studying crises is challenging because of small samples and incomplete data. *Written as a contribution for Trade, Globalization and Development: Essays in Honor of Kalyan Sanyal, edited by Sugata Marjit and Rajat Acharya (Springer Verlag; forthcoming). Some of this essay draws from material in my book Misunderstanding Financial Crises (Oxford University Press; forthcoming November 2012). I worked at AIG Financial Products as a consultant from 1996-2008. I thank Doug Diamond, Bengt Holmström, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Guillermo Ordoňez for comments.1 1. Introduction Economic development does not result in the elimination of financial crises. The recent financial crisis of 2007-2009 in the United States and Europe shows that market economies, however much they grow and change, are still susceptible to collapse or near-collapse from financial crisis. This is a staggering thought...
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...authorities. Although deposit insurance present both positive and negative aspects for the economy. Introduction Banks are the most important financial institutions in every country as they act as an intermediary between lenders and borrower. General public use banks as safest place to keep their savings which can be used in the needed situation and also to earn some interest on their deposits. Banking institutions invest that money in other projects to gain profit, but some time when financial instruments fails in the economy then banks and depositors are backed by the schemes like deposit insurance. In the past decades, a series of banking disaster has shaken the world’s economy. Many of the banks have gone bankrupt and some are facing liquidity problems. This problem is not only confined to the developing economies. Many countries have deposit insurance system and many are planning to adopt it so as to secure their banking system. It is basically to protect a...
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...most other countries have not in the past provided government sponsored deposit insurance, though some have put it in place as part of their response to the credit crisis. Does the unique structure of the U.S. banking system indicate a greater need for such insurance? In 1933, banks in the United States were unsecure and there was widespread fear based on the previous closures. Depositors panicked as banks were experiencing difficulties. What differentiated U.S banks from other banks is that US banks were composed of two main banks: national banks that were following the federal law and regulation and which it could share funds and resources across US, and the State banks that were following the state law and regulations. It was proven after the crisis that local units banks were more vulnerable to the crisis than national banks. Many states restricted branch banks form developing that made some banks riskier and it limited their liquidity. In 1929 crash, customers were unable to pay back their loans that led to a severe liquidity problem as payment of loans and deposits provided most of the cash flow and backing of American banks, which led to bank closures. From another point, the absence of a central bank is another difference between US and Germany or Great Britain. It was surely one reason of the severe crisis that affected US Banks. Due the lack of presence of central banks and absence of a leader that could limit the failures and restore...
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...Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Introduction 2 Part A 2 Part B 5 Justify the use of ratios to the liquidity and capital of commercial bank 5 Measure and analyze the ratios of Standard & Chartered 6 Conclusion 9 References 10 Appendix 11 Appendix 1 11 Appendix 2 11 Appendix 3 12 Appendix 4 13 Appendix 5. 13 Executive Summary The report gives a deep investigation of commercial bank and adopts 4 types of ratios to analyse the 5-year-annaul reports in the liquidity and capital sides respectively in Part B. In liquidity, Long- Term Debt to Total Assets ratio, Total Loans to Total Deposits ratio have measured the bank’s liquidity, furthermore, Core Tier 1Capital Ratio and the Tangible Common Equity Ratio have explained the bank’s capital in order to compare with the ratios in liquidity. Generally, these 4 ratios have presented that Standard & Chartered as the commercial bank faced serious financial problem at the year of economy crisis in the area of profitability and security. In order to give the clear explanation to commercial bank, the part A has critically analysed the differences of balance sheet between Standard & Chartered and Legal & General Group insurance company, even though they have the similar functions in financial market, the different positions in Customers, Interest Rate, Liquidity and Distribution make them to own their unique Characteristics which has been shown from their balance sheet in 2012. Introduction...
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...Background………………………………………………………………………….3 Interested areas for research and further study (Research Proposal)……………….3 Further explanation of the intended research topics………………………………………..4 Securitization…………………………………………………………………………………………………..4 Credit Derivatives…………………………………………………………………………………………….6 Hybrid Products……………………………………………………………………………………………….7 Re-Securitization……………………………………………………………………………………………..8 Contribution of these products towards Financial Crisis…………………………………..8 Improper Risk Management role in Financial Crisis………………………………………….9 Risks………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..10 Market Risk……………………………………………………………………………………………………..11 Credit Risk……………………………………………………………………………………………………….11 Liquidity Risk……………………………………………………………………………………………………11 Interest Rates and the Financial Crisis………………………………………………………………12 Relation between low interest rate and financial crisis…………………………………….12 Role of Rating Agencies……………………………………………………………………………………14 Structure Finance Products and Rating Agencies……………………………………………..14 Regulations Then and Now………………………………………………………………………………15 BASEL II……………………………………………………………………………………………………………16 Enhancements of Basel II…………………………………………………………………………………18 The Resecuritisation Exposure Using IRB Approach………………………………………….18 The Resecuritisation Exposure Using Standardized Approach…………………………..18 Operational Criteria for Credit Analysis……………………………………………………………19 Securitization Liquidity Facilities – Standardized Approach………………………………19 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………...
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