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U Turn


Submitted By therainbowman
Words 279
Pages 2
On August 11, china’s central bank devalued the value of Yuan against the US dollar by 1136 pips or 1.9%, and made this devaluation the biggest one-day devaluation of USD/CNY in the history.
If we look the year chart of USD/CNY, from 2008 to 2013, Yuan entered into an appreciation round (from roughly 6.85250 to roughly 6.04370). From 2014 to August 2015, Yuan entered into depreciation round (from roughly 6.04370 to roughly 6.39240). This cycle made Yuan completed a U turn that called by WSJ. Most people believe that the devaluation is because China wants to stimulate its exports. But, can china make it happen? From my perspective, china is not going to make it happen in the short run. First of all, if we simply let the china’s export revenues equal to quantity multiply by price. A decrease in export prices does not necessarily lead to an increase in exports. With high proportion of low value-added products in china’s exports and according to Qingyi Su (2013), “Income and Price Elasticities of China's Exports”, price elasticity of china’s exports is low, whose absolute value is less than one. Which means 1% decrease in price will increase the quantity by less than 1%, and leading to a decrease in export revenues. Secondly, According to the J-Curve Effect, the quantity of import and export are not change significantly at the beginning, However, due to changes in exchange rates, export revenues that settlement by US dollar will decrease, and import revenues that settlement by CNY is going to increase. This will also lead the Trading revenues decrease at the very

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