American Response to Rising Powers in an Offensive Neo-Realist World: A Rising China and its challenge to American Interests

The year is 2045, it’s a brisk December morning and the television is turned to CNN news in many American homes. China once again makes headlines as they have successfully landed a man on mars. The Chinese military has developed a missile defense system and is making plans to confront the Japanese military over fishing rights in the pacific. The Chinese market also makes headlines since it is the largest market in the world in terms of GDP and produces 30% of the products in the world. The effects of the Chinese military can be felt in the U.S since it has had to withdraw its navy from the pacific and now has smaller global reach. Three out of ten products picked up at Wal-Mart have the all too familiar “Made in China” printed on the back. This future is of course, fictional and too many may seem farfetched and impossible. However, this future is not all that unrealistic and with the current development of China, it may soon be a reality. China is headed towards a future where China is a global superpower economically, militarily and politically. How should American foreign policy address a rising China? Should we be accommodating and welcome a rising China or should we prevent China from ever reaching superpower status? Given the development of China, the way rising powers interact with world powers historically as well as theoretically and current as well as hisotoric Sino-American realations, we should develop a dessisive foreign policy that addresses the potential threat China posses to American Interests. The Chinese Economic Miracle
China is everywhere these days. The words “Made in China” are universally recognized. China sews more shoes and stitches more clothes than any other country in the world. It is also the biggest producer of consumer electronics making more DVD’s, TV’s and cellular phones than any other country in the world. The Chinese economy is marked by a robust growth rate of 10.2%, compared to a miniscule 3.2% of the United States. China also has the second largest economy in the world at 2.2 trillion. Furthermore factories are constantly outsourcing jobs to China since production there is much cheaper. When factories move to China they bring technology with them and as a result the Chinese population is becoming more current on cutting edge technology. To understand the Chinese economy we must explore how it all began.
The story begins with the 1949 revolution , led by Mao Zedong. After winning the revolution Mao Zedong ended a system of private land ownership that dated back for centuries. In 1956 China turned away from individual land use and assimilated the Soviet model of collectivization. Furthermore the government implemented the hukou system which was a series of laws that made the state the feudal master over its farmers. As a result farmers were extremely unhappy and immigrated into cities. Over 50 million farmers moved from the country side to the city from 1959 to 1960 and as a result the Chinese population began to starve. The government reacted by deporting all of those farmers back to the country side where they were to stay. This infuriated the farmers even more. Eighteen farmers from the city Xiaogang in the Anhui province secretly met and decided to divide the plots up discretely amongst themselves. They would give a set amount of crops to the government and sell the surplus. They would of course underreport the amount of production so that they would be able to sell something. This secret agreement caught the eye of Deng Xiaoping , the de facto leader of China from late 1970’s to early 1990’s. He saw that this arrangement was working very well. The land was producing more crops and wealth among the locals was higher than ever. Farmers then looked for new ways to make more money with their money thus stimulating other businesses. Deng Xiaoping decided to allow this as an experiment which became know as the household responsibility system . This system was officially implemented by the government in 1980.In the end it was farmers that launched economic reform in China and gave birth to the fast growing Chinese economy. Economic Success Equals Military Might
Few people would argue the Chinese economy is anything less than influential in the world. This Chinese economy is also extremely important since it will eventually have the ability to convert economic power into military power just as the Unites States did in the late 1800’s. In Fareek Zakaria’s book, From Wealth to Power he explains how a strong economy eventually leads to strong military and political might. He says that “National Power can be converted into international influence, but the state first requires the mechanisms and institutions that make this conversion possible.” His case study is the United States before the twentieth century. After the civil war the United States’ economy began to grow rapidly. America remained isolationist for many years and its military was in no way proportional to its wealth. However, after the United States developed stronger governmental institutions in the late nineteenth century it converted its wealth into power. It invested heavily in the navy in order to protect its ever increasing interests abroad. The US is a perfect example of how economic power leads to military and political power. China will follow in the steps of the US and in fact is currently showing signs of turning economic might into military might. The People’s Republic of China now spends 81 billion dollars on defense a year, making it the 2nd largest defense budget of any other country. China is also a member of the 5 nuclear states and currently has around 130 nuclear warheads. As far as conventional forces go China’s figures are frightening. China currently has 2,255,000 active troops making it the largest army in the world. As of now the Chinese military is not as technologically advanced as the American military. This will soon change as the US is constantly outsourcing its technology to China by way of factories and other private enterprises. China currently has no aircraft carriers compared to 11 American aircraft carriers and one being built; therefore China poses no real threat to American interests. However, as the Chinese economy grows so will its military strength. Evolution of Strong Politics in China
Politics is extremely important in shaping domestic and foreign policy and a state would not be able to wield a strong economy or a strong military without a strong political system and powerful institutions. The Peoples Republic of China currently employs a single party socialist republic. As a single party system it is extremely easy for the government to pass laws and legislation since it has no opposition. China’s political system is also very unique in that it is a hybrid of communism, socialism and capitalism. As China’s domestic political influence increases domestically we will begin to see its influence abroad. In fact China already has political power abroad that sometimes comes into conflict with American politics.
As one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council China has much political influence and even veto power in international political issues. This display of political power can be seen in 1990 when China used its veto power to prevent UN peacekeeping missions to the republic of Macedonia and Guatemala. China has been relatively passive with its veto power using it only in three other instances; Once in 1972 to veto the admission of Bangladesh into the UN, in 1973, in conjunction with the Soviet Union to veto a resolution on the ceasefire in the Yom Kippur War and again in 1997 to veto ceasefire observers to Guatemala. Although China has only used its veto power four times it is still in an extremely unique position in the world. There are 243 countries in the world and only 5 have the unique power of vetoing resolutins in the UN. Also, as China grows it will develop more interests abroad. China will eventually use its political, military and economic power to protect its interests abraod and eventaully China’s interests will come into conflict with America’s interests.

It’s a Neo Realist World Out There
In an article written by Robert Gilpin called Hegomonic War and International Change he discusses the role of dominant and rising states and how they will come into conflict with one another. He says says that “costs to the traditional dominant state of maintaining the internatinal system increase relative to its capicity to pay…while costs of changing the system for a rising state decrease.” According to the law of demand the rising state, as its power increases, will seek to change the status quo which will lead to war. Law of Demand We can see, by the graph illustrated above, that these two states will come into conflict with one another. China, as the rising state, is going to want to change the status quo of the international system to better itself. The United States, on the other hand, is going to want to keep the system the way it is. This will of course eventaully lead to conflict among the two nations. History has taught us that rising powers do in fact challenge status quo powers. A notable example is France and England in the early nineteenth century. The British Empire was thriving. It had oversees colonies in every continent, thus the saying “the sun never sets on the union jack.” It had the largest landmass, population and GDP of any other nation in the world. At its height the British Empire had a populaiton of around 400 million people. France was also a thriving nation, but not nearly to the extent of the British Empire. France had just had a revolution and was rebuilding its governmental institutions as well as its national identity. However, it was doing this at a very impressive rate eventually developing markets and a navy that rivaled that of the British Empire. France was able to do so well, in part, because the British Empire maintained the international system, but more importantly because it maintained the security of Europe. Since France did not have to invest in the security of Europe it could instead invest in its military, among other things. When Napoleon came into power he decided his interests conflicted with England, since both nations had oversees colonies and thus territorial disputes. It was not until the battle of Waterloo that France was defeated. In this example we can see how a rising power (France) challenged the status quo power (The British Empire). If we look at history we can see that most great powers were challenged by a rising power. The Roman Empire was challenged by Carthage , the Spanish empire was challenged by France and England. The Soviet Union was challenged by the United States through out the Cold War. If we consider the lessons learned in history and a neo realist theory into consideration we can safely assume that the United States will eventually be challenged by a rising power. China seems as the most likely candidate to challenge the United States given the rate at which it is growing. We must therefore develop and appropriate foreign policy. Current Policy
Sino-American relations have been mixed though out history. As a result American foreign policy toward China has been mixed and uncertain in the twentieth century. In World War II the two nations were allies against the empire of Japan. However, after the end of World War II relations between the two nations diminished dramatically. In 1949 the Republic of China was no longer the legitimate government in China. Instead the nation was headed by the Peoples Republic of China. The new communist regime was surely not going to be looked upon by the U.S as an ally. This proved to be correct when the United States worked to prevent the Peoples Republic of China from taking the Republic of China’s seat in the UN. Eventually this endeavor by the US failed. Furthermore, the US did not officially recognize the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate government for 30 years and instead, maintained diplomatic relations with the Republic of China government in Taiwan and recognized the Rebublic of China as the sole legitimate government of all China. It was not until January 1, 1979, with comminique on the establishment of diplomatic realtions, that the two nations officialy established relations. After this Sino-American realtions, for most part, improved and foregin policy shifted more toward a policy of cooperation. There have, of course, been a few instances of tension. For example, currently the United States does not support development bank lending and will not support IMF credits to the PRC except for projects that address basic human needs. Relations were also strained with the accidental NATO Bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade . Two years later there was yet another incident when in April 2001, a People’s Rebublic of China J-8 fighter jet collided with a U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft flying over international waters south of the People’s Republic of China. In the letter of two sorries , the United States formally apolygized for the death of the chinese pilot and for the unauthorized emergency landing of the American pilot but never apolygized for conducting signals reconnaissance off the coast of China nor did it take responsibilty for the crash. Indeed, American foreign policy towards China has been historically mixed and continues to be mixed today. Currently, China is neither an American ally nor an enemy. However, given the development of china, the way rising powers interact with world powers and current and historic Sino-American relations, we should develop a less mixed foreign policy that addresses the potential threat China posses to American Interests.

Prescrition
The United States should develop a policy of containment and support for the Republic of China in Taiwan. China has invested billions of dollars on its military. The US should discourage this kind of spending and should instead encourage China to spend its money on more humaine porpuses such as education. This would help human rights in China, improve the quality of life in and would also develop a more skilled chinese labor work force. This would also benefit the US in two ways. First, China would not be spending as much on its military so it would no longer be a threat and second China would be better equipped to develop new technologies which it could share with the US. Currently the US exports technology to China by way of private enterprises. It seems more fair and beneficial to both nations if there was an exhange of technologies instead of just giving it away.
The US should develop closer ties to the Republic of China in Taiwan and should also support it. Currently the question of taiwan is very complex. It is not clear whether taiwan is part of the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of China or if it exists as its own soveirn state. It is vital to American interests that Taiwan remain its own state or part of the Republic of China. Taiwan is an extremely important economic center in the world. It also controls very important shipping routes in Asia. If Taiwan fell to the People’s Republic of China the balance of power in asia would shift dramatically. The People’s Republic of China would be able to project naval military power at an alarming distance which would be able to challenge American interests directly. This US has already failed at implementing this policy since in March 14, 2005 the People’s Rebulic of China passed the Anti sesession law . This law was passed and the US did nothing.
Policy should also discourage so much economic integreation. Many experts argue that integration will lead to peace since neither will be willing to risk war. However, they are making the huge assumption that economic benefits outwiegh any other benefits or reasons for war. The US should not be so dependent on foreign economies. Currently China owns 70% of American bonds. This is very alarming since China owns much of our debt. This will disourage American policy makers from making appropriate policies towards China.
Indeed, the future of Sino-American relations remains uncertain. Immidiate policy will determine whether the 21st century will be marked by Chinese expansion or the status quo of the American state and its role in the world. America has no friends only interests and given the current state of the world it is in our best interest to implement a policy of contaiment and support for Taiwan. If we do not act accordingly the 21st century will go down in history as the Chinese century. America will never be the same again.