Employment Trends Forecasting – Last Four Years

Employment Trends Forecasting – Last Four Years The manufacturing industry refers to any company that produces goods rather than services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that manufacturing industries can be anything from “mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products” (BLS, 2011) and includes consumable goods such as bakery items, candy and items that are tailored. Since the beginning of the recession that hit on a global level and here in the United States, employment trends have taken an interesting turn of events over the last four years.
Current Employment Trends 2011
The manufacturing industry was consistent with the trends of continuing mass lay-offs and contributed greatly to the overall unemployment percentages that hovered steadily in the 9.0+ percentile. The month of April, 2011 showed the highest rates of manufacturing industry layoffs. According to the BLS.gov website there were 397 companies who implemented layoff events that affected up to 47,104 manufacturer workers. With only 23,400 job openings for 47 thousand unemployed, it is evident that 2011 was not a good year for the individuals and families of a large sector of manufacturer workers.
The average manufacturer employee at the level above non-supervisory positions earned approximately $23.60 an hour and worked a normal 40 hour work week. The non-supervisor’s earned an average $4.60 less with their hourly wage consistent at $18.91 within a 41 hour work week.
Trends 2010
During the recession we can take a closer look at how it has affected the manufactories in the ways they have to perform in order to stay up with employment. During the last quarter of 2010 the employment had increased for the largest U.S. counties; The Bureau of Labor Statistic had completed their report of the increase in employment. Out of 326 which are the largest U.S. countries they reported that 226 had an employment increase. One would consider the increase to be good considering the manufacturer industries were the hardest hit within the U.S. counties.
In Elkhart, Ind., from December 2009 to December 2010 had posted one of the largest increases over the past year when The Bureau of Labor Statistic compared the national job growth to be 0.9%. Upon completing the statistic study with Elkhart, it was determined that employment had increased in the manufacturing industry by up to 4,185 jobs over the past year which amounts to 10.3 percent. Manatee, FL., was one of the counties that experienced the largest decrease in employment with a loss of 4.0 percent. The 106 largest counties to include Manatee, FL suffered huge decreases within the manufacture industries. The counties that had the largest increase started with New, NY with 37.5 % to Hennepin, MN with 12.8%.
In December 2010, the QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage Data) program measured the national employment at 129.5 million which is a small percentage as compared to the overall U.S. statistic which went up by 0.9 percent. Once broken down the statistics accounts to 1.1 million workers. From December 2009 to December 2010, 83 of the largest counties in the U.S. had a decline of 83 percent.
A majority of the manufacturing industries have seen a small increase within their employment sectors but not enough to bring those people back into the system that were laid off or let go. It is safe to say that 106 remaining largest counties found it very difficult to hire employees, due to the decline within the manufacturing industry. Hopefully, by 2011 the U.S. manufacturing industry will once again climb up to a higher percentage rate as compared to 2010.
Trends 2009
Employment trends that can be seen by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ web site for the manufacturing industry include the employment hours and earnings decrease for workers in 2009 versus 2007 and 2008. This decline continues in subsequent years as well. However; an increase in the median weekly earnings from 2008 across the board from full-time, union, and non-union employees indicates that the manufacturing industry, which were still prospering, were able to compensate existing employees adequately.
The unemployment rate average for 2009 was 12.1% comparatively to 2008 at 5.8%, which at this time has slowly improved over the last couple of years. The mass layoffs in 2009 was also considerably high from the previous years, just as job openings were limited due to the recessionary period. The union members and those persons represented by unions’ percentiles stayed the same from 2008 to 2009, which would indicate that the organizations and employees participating as part of a union were not as readily affected by the economic downturn as those that were not part of a union.
The average hourly earnings and weekly hours for all employees were virtually unchanged from 2008 to 2009 even with the rate of unemployment and mass layoffs. The manufacturing industry did have some decline with regard to employment trends, but per the statistics for 2010 and first and second quarter 2011, seems to be gaining momentum as a positive force for the future.
Trends 2008
The current recession represents a good opportunity to review the performance of manufacturing and the changes that have occurred over the last four few years. Manufacturing is usually vulnerable in recessions, such as automobile manufacturing, are especially hit hard. The unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in 2008, a 1.5 percent increase from 2007. Manufacturing's total employment started to decline rapidly from 2008 to present, up to 12.5 percent just in 2009 alone.
The decline from mid-2007 can be attributed largely to a weakened demand for housing and for the durable goods (such as wood products and furniture) associated with that industry; and to ongoing restructuring in the auto industry, which has been affected by high gasoline prices.
The decline in employment has caused a great deal of hardship for many workers in the manufacturing sector. In fact, the pattern of job losses and gains across different industries within the sector and the nature of the hardship associated with losing a job in manufacturing appear to be somewhat different from those associated with earlier declines in manufacturing employment. A smaller percentage of the decline in manufacturing jobs stemmed from actual job losses (as opposed to a slower rate of new hires) than in the past. But those who did lose a job experienced longer spells of unemployment and a greater loss of income than did workers who lost a job during the previous years.
The developments in the manufacturing sector, the growth of productivity, the increase in imports, and the decline in employment, have some positive implications for the economy as a whole. Clearly, some industries have experienced especially large employment reductions, some workers have experienced significant income losses, and some communities that depend heavily on manufacturing have faced difficult adjustments. However, consumers have benefited from the lower prices made possible by the productivity gains, and the competition from imports that underlie the decline in manufacturing employment.
In conclusion, employees in the manufacturing industry have taken the brunt of the economical downturn over the last four years. It is hopeful that rather than a continued recession that becomes a full blown depression, will instead enter into a robust recovery on a global level.

References:
US Dept of Labor. (2011). Industries at a glance. Manufacturing: NAICS 31-33. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved online July 12, 2011 from: http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag31-33.htm