...continue to rise — led to excesses and bad decisions. Many mortgage lenders approved loans for borrowers without carefully examining their ability to pay. Many borrowers took out loans larger than they could afford, assuming that they could sell or refinance their homes at a higher price later on. Both individuals and financial institutions increased their debt levels relative to historical norms during the past decade significantly. Optimism about housing values also led to a boom in home construction. Eventually the number of new houses exceeded the number of people willing to buy them. And with supply exceeding demand, housing prices fell. And this created a problem: Borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages (i.e., those with initially low rates that later rise) who had been planning to sell or refinance their homes before the adjustments occurred were unable to refinance. As a result, many mortgage holders began to default as the adjustments began. These widespread defaults (and related foreclosures) had effects far beyond the housing market. Home loans are often packaged together, and converted into financial products called "mortgage-backed securities". These securities were sold to investors around the world. Many investors assumed these securities were...
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...and Loan Crisis (1988-1982) 1. Bank Failures 2. Recession -Economy Growth(1993-2000) 1. Dot.com ere 2. Federal Surplus 3. Millennium 4.Clinton Era -(2001), and beyond on the economy 1.President Bush 2.9/11 3.Recession 4. Dot.com bubble 5. Housing boom and bubble -Conclusion(2006) 1. Greenspan Retires Alan Greenspan was the Federal Reserve chairman for the last nineteen years he was the longest chairman in that position. Alan Greenspan was first appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1987 and retired under President Bush in 2006. The chairman of the Federal Reserve is appointed every four years by the president, and then the Senate. The Federal Reserve is in charge of the financial system in the United States, and is independent part of the government that is not influenced by politics. The duties of the Federal Reserve are to preserve a sound banking system, preserve the power of dollar, print money if needed, and to regulate interest rate policies. Alan Greenspan had massive influence on the economy when he was the chairman of the reserve he set the tone of the economy when the Federal Reserve met, and that was mostly done by regulating interest rates. After Alan Greenspan retired in 2006 many economist came out and blamed Greenspan for keeping the interest rates to low between 2001 to 2005 in which caused the housing crisis in 2007.(Federal Reserve...
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...were right for many people to achieve that dream in the early 2000s, mortgage interest rates were low, which allow you to borrow more money with a lower monthly payment. In addition, home prices increased dramatically, so buying a home seemed like a sure bet. Lenders understood that homes make good collateral, so they were willing to participate. In 2007, the US economy entered a mortgage crisis that caused panic and financial turmoil around the world. The mortgage crisis was a result of too much borrowing and flawed financial modeling, largely based on the assumption that home prices only go up. Greed and fraud also played important parts. Banks offered easy access to money before the mortgage crisis emerged. Borrowers got into high risk mortgages such as option-ARMs, and they qualified for mortgages with little or no documentation. Even people with bad credit could qualify as subprime borrowers. Fraud on the part of homebuyers and mortgage brokers helped make the mortgage crisis more serious. Mortgage applications were not checked for accuracy as well as they should have been. This is what started the subprime mortgage crisis, popularly known as the “mortgage mess” or “mortgage meltdown,” came to the public’s attention when a steep rise in home foreclosures in 2006 spiraled seemingly out of control in 2007, triggering a national financial crisis that went global within the year. Consumer spending is down, the housing market has plummeted, foreclosure numbers continue to rise...
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...themselves for carrying more risk. There are several different kinds of subprime mortgage structures available. The most common is the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), which initially charges a fixed interest rate, and then converts to a floating rate based on an index such as LIBOR, plus a margin. The better known types of ARMs include3/27 and2/28 ARMs. ARMs are somewhat misleading to subprime borrowers in that the borrowers initially pay a lower interest rate. When their mortgages reset to the higher, variable rate, mortgage payments increase significantly. This is one of the factors that lead to the sharp increase in the number of subprime mortgage foreclosures in August of 2006, and the subprime mortgage meltdown that ensued. Many lenders were more liberal in granting these loans from 2004 to 2006 as a result of lower interest rates and high capital liquidity. Lenders sought additional profits through these higher risk loans, and they charged interest rates above prime in order to compensate for the additional risk they assumed. Consequently, once the rate of subprime mortgage foreclosures skyrocketed, many lenders experienced extreme financial difficulties, and even bankruptcy. 2. What is Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO)? A structured financial product that pools together cash flow-generating assets and repackages this asset pool into discrete tranches that can...
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...present world. According to the expert’s observation and, of course, based on the data of the happenings within the financial sectors, to find out the immediate causes of current global economic downfall, we need to go a little back in past and understand what was happening in the housing sector of America for past many years. Background and causes The immediate cause or trigger of the crisis was the bursting of the United States housing bubble, which peaked in approximately 2005–2006. High default rates on "subprime" and adjustable rate mortgages (ARM), began to increase quickly thereafter. An increase in loan incentives such as easy initial terms and a long-term trend of rising housing prices had encouraged borrowers to assume difficult mortgages in the belief they would be able to quickly refinance at more favorable terms. However, once interest rates began to rise and housing prices started to drop moderately in 2006–2007 in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult. Defaults and foreclosure activity increased dramatically as easy initial terms expired, home prices failed to go up as anticipated, and ARM interest rates reset higher. 01. Growth of the housing bubble Between 1997 and 2006, the price of the typical American house increased by 124%. During the two decades ending in 2001, the national median home price ranged...
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...____________________________________________________________________________ REACTION PAPER Asian Economics Comment Presented to: Prof, Jima G.DeLeon, MBA Professor, School of Graduate Studies Central Philippine University In Partial Fulfilment of the Course Requirement in MBA 612 Financial Systems Presented by: Mehrdad Alavi MBA Thesis Option September 13, 2013 I. PRELINMINARY 1- The title of paper is Asian Economics Comment, The anatomy of bubbles, part 1. It is written at August 27 2009 by Dr, Feredric Neumman, whom is senior Asian Economist. The issuer of report is The Hongkong and Shunghai Banking Corporation Limited. Additional information for connecting to the author is +85228224556. FEREDERICINEUMANN@HSBC.COM.HK For more information, the reader can view HSBC Global Research at: www.research.hsbc.com 2- It talks about The Bubble in the financial market specifically in the financial housing market in the Asia and what was happening in the USA at 2008 in the same field. II. ANALYSIS AND REACTION 1- The author tried to anatomy of a bubble in the asset market which was happening at 2008 and before. The first part is discussed about what conditions required for that and the part two and three are belong to what is need to sustain the run. He had paid particularly attention to psychology and what behavioural insights now which could teach us. 2- Analyze the Elements of Style: This is a mix of Shakespearean literature and Economic article. In the first read it is difficult...
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...HOUSING BUBBLE AND ITS IMPACT ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS (2007) Housing bubble or real estate bubble is one of the basic problems that lead to global financial crisis in the late 2000s. When people’s wealth substantially increased, they will spend or consume more on everything, including houses. People demand for a better and bigger homes until in the late 90s, consumption boom occurred. The increased in demand has triggered housing bubble and makes the bubble became bigger. When demand on houses increased, of course the prices would be increased too. Until some point, the demand decreases or becomes stagnant, but the supply is still increasing, it will lead to sharp drop in the houses’ prices. At this point the bubble burst. Basically, the main reason that triggered the bubble and made it bigger was the policies of the Federal Reserve back in 2003. Referring to the reason, to avoid recession after the collapse of the tech bubble in 2000 and the 9/11 attacks in U.S during 2001, the Federal Reserve started to lower the interest rate from 6.5% to 1.75%. In 2003, the interest rate has been lowered to 1% and it remained there for a full year. However, the house prices were still growing up, higher than the interest rate. Even the house prices were growing at the rate of inflation, the Federal then encouraged people to buy houses. Federal has made an incentive so that people can go out and borrow at the rate of 1%. In addition, they created Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a privately...
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...institutions globally, starting with the rescue of investment bank Bear Stearns in March 2008 and the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Many of these institutions had invested in risky securities that lost much or all of their value when U.S. and European housing bubbles began to deflate during the 2007-2009 period, depending on the country. Further, many institutions had become dependent on short-term (overnight) funding markets subject to disruption.[7][8] The origin of these housing bubbles involves two major factors: 1) Low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe following the 2000-2001 U.S. recession; and 2) Significant growth in savings available from developing nations due to ongoing trade imbalances.[9] These factors drove a large increase in demand for high-yield investments. Large investment banks connected the housing markets to this large supply of savings via innovative new securities, fueling housing bubbles in the U.S. and Europe.[10] Many institutions lowered credit standards to continue feeding the global demand for mortgage securities, generating huge profits which its investors shared. They also shared the risk. When the bubbles developed, household debt levels rose sharply after the year 2000 globally. Households became dependent on being able to refinance their mortgages. Further, U.S. households often had adjustable rate mortgages, which had lower initial interest rates and payments that later rose. When global credit markets essentially stopped funding...
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...Urban Housing Markets in China Yongzhou Hou Stockholm 2009 Report 88 Building and Real Estate Economics Department of Real Estate and Construction Management Royal Institute of Technology Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan © Yongzhou Hou 2009 Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Building & Real Estate Economics Department of Real Estate and Construction Management SE – 100 44 Stockholm Printed by Tryck & Media, Universitetsservice US-AB, Stockholm ISSN 1104-4101 ISRN KTH/BFE/M-09/88-SE ISBN 978-91-977302-5-9 Abstract This thesis focuses on problems of prices and risks in the housing markets of urban China. What drives the dynamics of housing prices across regions is not only of great interest for academic researchers but also of first importance for policy makers. It is also interesting to pay attention to the issue of housing bubbles at a city level and risk allocations from an institutional view. To address the issues, the thesis applies both qualitative and econometric approaches in analyzing the urban housing markets of China. The first paper reviews articles mainly published in Chinese core journals. The existing studies are mainly concerned with such six topics as institutions, policy, land, finance, price and market. The first three topics involve the public housing allocation system reform, such fiscal and monetary tools as tax and interest rate, and the land reserve system. The housing finance treats such subjects of mortgages, bubbles and financial systems...
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...Subprime Meltdown: American Housing and Global Financial Turmoil The real estate and financial crisis was caused by a significant rise in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, leaving repercussions for banks and financial markets globally. The subprime mortgage crises started to become apparent in 2007 resulting in a weakening global financial system. An estimated 80% of US mortgages held by the subprime borrowers were adjustable rate mortgages. Once housing prices reached their peak during the middle of 2006, the steep decline that followed made refinancing difficult. Adjustable rate mortgages began to reset at higher rates resulting in increasing mortgage defaults. Financial firms which held most of the securities backed with subprime mortgages were left with securities with no value. Ultimately, credit around the world tightened as the capital in many banks and US government sponsored enterprises were losing value. What caused the crises can be attributed to a number of factors; the failure of homeowners to meet their mortgage payments, the adjustable rate mortgages resetting along with the extensive lending. In 2008 the mortgage industry played a crucial role in the recession when an estimated 1.5 million homeowners defaulted on payments lending to foreclosure by 2009. As a result, the mortgage industry has restructured limiting individuals to purchase homes. From 2000-2006, home foreclosures began to rise. Thus the government began to investigate the practices...
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...answers include a diverse array of immediate and deeper causes in the housing and financial sectors of the U.S. economy. While the recessions initial spark was found in housing, U.S. government policy in addition to careless behavior on the part of both lenders and borrowers, along with poor corporate governance can be linked to the massive subprime loans that ultimately turned into the subprime crisis. Self-interest by subprime lenders and Government Sponsored Entities (Fannie Mae) are also liable for escalating the crisis. Among these factors, here I will mainly discuss three principal causes that have come to my attention; the housing price bubble, poor governmental oversee, and the subprime mortgage-lending boom that it fed. The Housing Bubble: From 1980 to 1997 the real price of housing in the United States had remained relatively stable. After controlling for inflation and differences in house size and quality, we still see that the average price of a home in 1997 was only 2% more than the average price one century earlier. This flat trend had ultimately ended beginning in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. When the housing prices had peaked in 2006, the average price was close to twice the long-term average price from 1980 to 1997. Only six years later did the price return the long-term trend (Shiller Housing Price Index). The origin of the housing bubble is much similar to prior price bubbles. A real increase in demand caused a gradual rise in price, which soon...
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...review, issue no. 46 The housing bubble and the financial crisis Dean Baker [Center for Economic and Policy Research, USA] Copyright: Dean Baker, 2008 The central element in the current financial crisis is the housing bubble. The irrational exuberance surrounding this bubble created an environment that was ripe for the cowboy financing that got Wall Street and the country into so much trouble. Of course the cowboy financing fed into the bubble, allowing it to grow to proportions that would not have been possible with a well-regulated financial system. This essay first describes the circumstances under which the bubble began to grow. It then discusses how financial innovations and the lack of a proper regulator structure allowed the bubble to grow to ever more dangerous levels and eventually to crash in a way that has placed unprecedented strain on the country’s financial system. The third part outlines key principles for reform of the financial system. The origins of the housing bubble The housing bubble in the United States grew up alongside the stock bubble in the mid-90s. The logic of the growth of the bubble is very simple. People who had increased their wealth substantially with the extraordinary run-up of stock prices were spending based on this increased wealth. This led to the consumption boom of the late 90s, with the savings rate out of disposable income falling from close to 5.0 percent in the middle of the decade to just over 2 percent by 2000. The stock wealth induced...
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...The Bubble Bursts In 2007, demand for housing finally slowed => Prices decreased => unemployment increased In 2009, housing bubble burst => debtors went bankrupt => cajas and banks failed First bailout of banks in March 2009 Investor confidence plunges => bank shares fell => bank runs occur => more bailouts occurred As you can see on the graph there is a big surge in gdp from 2000 to 2006 and it slowly starts to taper off until 2007 the peak of the graph from 2000 on. This surge is the growth of the housing bubble and gdp starts to decrease in 2007 representing the decrease in housing demand. 2009 the bubble bursts with a significant drop in gdp. As colin said the construction industry comprised of 13% spain’s total employment so when demand slowed, the construction industry took a big hit as many of the workers were no longer needed. Unemployment increased and house prices decreased. As a result the bubble burst in 2009 and debtors went bankrupt and so did the banks and cajas that they loaned from. In march 2009, the Spanish government had no choice but to announce their first bailout of the banks. Because of that move, bank shares fell and investor confidence in the banks fell. Investors didn’t want to invest in failing banks and depositors went on bank runs to try and get their money out of the banks before they became worthless. You can see that spain was in a dangerous cycle of bailouts, bunk runs, decreasing...
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...recession will be weakness in the housing market. The housing market had been the primary fuel for the recovery until th e last year, as there was an unprecedented run-up in house prices since 1997. With prices now he aded downward, construction and home sales have dropped off by almost 20 percent against year ago levels. Even more importantly, borrowing against home equity, which had been the main factor fue ling consumption growth, will plummet as many homeowners lack any further equity to borrow against. The result will be a downturn in consumption spending, which together with plun ging housing investment, will likely push the economy into recession. The economy will see a subst antial net loss of jobs, with nominal wage growth slowing as the labor market weakens over the course of the year. Overview This recovery has been fueled to a very large exten t by a housing bubble, just as the second half of the nineties cycle was fueled by a stock bubble. Sin ce 1997, average house prices have risen by more than 50 percent, after adjusting for inflation. Hist orically, house prices have moved at approximately the same pace as the overall rate of inflation. 1 This unprecedented run-up has not been associated with extraordinary population or income growth, bot h of which have been below their average pace for the post-war years since 2000. It is also not a ssociated with any new restrictions on supply, as housing construction was at near record...
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...analysis of the key macro and micro economics factors which impact on the current UK housing market Introduction This paper explores the current situation in the UK housing market. Fundamentally, the paper argues that the current situation in the housing market is a legacy of the way in which the housing market developed over the early 2000s into the 2007 and 2008 financial crisis. As the fall out from this crisis has taken two or three years to properly be felt it can currently be said to be exerting a major influence on the way the housing market in the UK is working today. The paper therefore places a major focus on developing an understanding of how the financial crisis occurred and the impact that this had on the UK housing market, in order to understand the key factors which are shaping the housing market today. The paper begins with a look at the state of the UK economy at the moment. This is only examined in brief but provides a key background to the work. This is then followed by a look at the UK economy and the housing market and how the two link together. The following section is the major section of the work as this focuses on the macroeconomic factors which have shaped the housing market. This section in particular focuses on the legacy of the housing market developments of the early 2000s. The following section briefly explores the microeconomic elements which have shaped the housing market – the major emphasis here is on the role of buy to let mortgages as a means...
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