# Supply Chain Planning and Control

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Submitted By zhayang1129
Words 2981
Pages 12
University of Hull | Supply Chain Planning and Control-Individual assignment: Pony Group | | | | 4/13/2013 |

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Student number: 201100320
Word count: 2,662

Contents

1. Introduction 2

2. Section 1: Demand forecast 2 2.1. Moving average 2 2.2. Simple Exponential Smoothing 3 2.3. Holt’s Model 4 2.4. Winter’s Model 5 2.5. Demand forecast for XYZ 8

3. Section 2: Aggregate planning 9 3.1. Aggregate planning Question 1 10 3.2. Aggregate planning Question 2 11

4. Section 4: Pricing and revenue management 12

Appendix 15

1. Introduction
This assignment is based on the market information of Pony group, an electronic manufacturer, to calculate and forecast the future development of this company. The topic is divided into three sections, the first part is to forecast the demand for next four months of Pony LCD TV screen, the second section is to identify the optimal production schedule for the cell phones market. The last section is to identify the optimal price for pony handheld consoles. 2. Section 1: Demand forecast
In this section, it will provide the demand forecast for next four months based on the historical demand data. There are four forecast methods used in this part, which are moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s model, and Winter’s model respectively. Firstly, I will figure out the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of all these four methods, and by comparing the MAPE to find out the most accurate method, then to use the most accurate technique to give four months demand forecasts for Pony LCD TV screen.

3.1. Moving average
Moving average is an adaptive forecasting method that only uses ‘level’ for the forecast. The level here is the average of demand over the most recent N periods, and previous level is the forecast for next period.

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