...of F in a n ce (H on ou r s) 2010 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction Stock market is a place for listed companies to raise capital .Companies can use the capital for continuing operating activities and expand business. However, the investors are explained to get a positive return from dividend and capital gain in the stock market. Based on the history, the economic condition will influence stock market. For instances, Malaysia faced deflation during the Asian crisis in years 1997. It caused the KLCI index sharply reduced from 1207.43 to 470.43. It have been shown that the investors need to predict the stock prices based on the macro factors to get an abnormal return from stock market There were a lot of researches to study the relationship between macroeconomics variables and stock returns. It is important to study the interaction of macroeconomics factor and stock return. Based on the study, the public can identify which factors can influence the stock market and use the knowledge to predict movement of stock price. According to Wongbangpo & Sharma (2002), the research can reveal the functions of stock market in identify the change in economic condition and also can predict the future performance of stock market. Besides, the study will be useful for the stock market participators. Clare & Priestley (1998) said that the study of the risk factor relationship of stock market will be useful for corporate manager to undertake cost of capital calculation. Moreover...
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...Relationship Exchange Rate Stock Price CHAPTER THREE 3.1) introduction This chapter is particularly focused on the various previous studies, which tries to explore the relationship between the exchange rate and stock price. Many studies had been conducted in context to the relation between the exchange rate and stock prices, some studies even have analyzed the relation by considering some of the other variables (like FDI, interest rate, inflation rate ect), to see if these variables have any influence on the fluctuating exchange rate and stock prices. The current literature provides year by year explanation about the Different opinions and arguments of various researches on the relationship between exchange rate and stock prices. For the easy understanding the chapter will be divided into two sections. The first section will cover all the research papers published prior to 1990's. one can observe that most of the studies in section one had established the relationship by measuring the exposure from fluctuating exchange rates to stock prices, so we will name this part as “literature review on measuring the exposure'. And in second section; we cover all the research papers which are published after 1990's and one can observe that some of the studies have established the relation by measuring the causal relation between the exchange rate and stock prices, so we would name the second part as” literature review on measuring the causality relation between the exchange rate and...
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...AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE A thesis submitted to the Institute of Distance Learning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of COMMONWEALTH EXECUTIVE MASTERS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Institute of Distance Learning, KNUST JUNE, 2011 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this submission is my own work toward the Commonwealth Executive Master of Business Administration and that, to the best of my knowledge, it contains no material previously published by another person nor material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree of the University except where due acknowledgement has been made in the text. RANSFORD CHARLES ENYAAH (STUDENT ID No: 20103521) …………………… Signature …………………. Date Certified by: EDWARD ACHEAMPONG (SUPERVISOR) …………………… Signature …………………. Date Certified by: ……………………………… Head of IDL …………………… Signature …………………. Date i DEDICATION I dedicate this project work to the Lord Almighty and all my loved ones. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all, I thank the almighty God for fulfilling his promises to my life and for granting me the strength, wisdom and knowledge to complete this work My profound gratitude goes to my Supervisor, Mr. Edward Acheampong (Lecturer, Methodist University College, Ghana) for his unflinching dedication...
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...International Journal of Business and Management March, 2009 Relationship between Interest Rate and Stock Price: Empirical Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries Md. Mahmudul Alam (Corresponding author) CRM, Marketing Division, Grameenphone Ltd 47 Shantinarar, Dhaka 1217, Bangladesh Tel: 880-1711-503-782 E-mail: rony000@gmail.com Md. Gazi Salah Uddin Department of Business Administration East West University 43, Mohakhali C/A, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh E-mail: rimsust2002@yahoo.com Abstract Stock exchange and interest rate are two crucial factors of economic growth of a country. The impacts of interest rate on stock exchange provide important implications for monitory policy, risk management practices, financial securities valuation and government policy towards financial markets. This study seeks evidence supporting the existence of share market efficiency based on the monthly data from January 1988 to March 2003 and also shows empirical relationship between stock index and interest rate for fifteen developed and developing countries- Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Germany, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippine, S. Africa, Spain, and Venezuela. Stationarity of market return is tested and found none of this stock market follows random walk model, means not efficient in weak form. To investigate the reasons of market inefficiency, relationship between share price and interest rate, and changes of share price and changes of interest...
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...of interest rate on stock market 3 A study based on the effects of interest rate (KIBOR) on share price 4 Market Interest rate and commercial bank profitability in Pakistan 5 Determinants of Corporate dividend payout policy 6 Effects of Free Cash flow on profitability of firms 7 Determinant of dividend payout ratio: A study of Pakistani fertilizer sector 8 Fundamentals and stock returns in Pakistan 9 Effects of mergers and acquisition in banking sector of Pakistan 10 Impact of Privatization of banks on profitability 11 Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises? 12 Cash flow and capital spending relationship: evidence from automobile sector 13 Impact of Privatization on profitability and efficiency of banks in Pakistan 14 To study the relationship between price earning ratio and return on investment 15 A test of price earning ratio to predict future growths 16 Factors affect on the dividend payout ratio (sugar industry) 17 Impact of macro-economic variables on stock sector of Pakistan 18 Relationship between Cash flow and investment spending in textile industry 19 Impact of taxation on firm’s dividend payout/ratio 20 Share price volatility explicatedmeasured by fundamentals 21 Stock price and economic variables ( Interest rate, inflation and GDP) 22 Determinants of P/E Ratio 23 Impact of capital structure on profitability 24 Impact of interest rate changes on bank’s profitability 25 Relationship of stock market returns and rate of inflation ...
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...pricing model (CAPM), adding size and value factors in addition to market risk factor in CAPM. This model considers the fact that the cost and small-capitalization stocks outperform the market on a regular basis. Including these two additional factors that corrects the model for the outperformance trend, which is thought to make it a better tool for evaluating the effectiveness of a manager. FAMA and French tried to better assess the market returns, and based on research, it was found that the value of the shares outperform growth stocks; In addition, small cap stocks tend to outperform large cap stocks. As an instrument of evaluation, the effectiveness of the portfolio with a large number of small cap or value stocks will be lower than the CAPM results, the three factor model adjusts down to small cap and value outperformance. There is much debate about how, outperformance is due to the tendency of market efficiency or inefficiency of the market. On the efficiency side of the debate, outperformance, how to explain that the risk of exceeding cost and small-capitalization stocks face as a result of their high cost of capital and increased business risk. On the ineffectiveness of the parties, outperformance is explained by market participants mispricing the value of those companies, which provides the excess return over the long term as the value is adjusted. The model for asset pricing (CAPM) called "Capital Asset Pricing Model>> (CAPM) was developed by Sharpe (2004), Lintner...
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...Effect Of Dividends On Stock Prices 1 EFFECT OF DIVIDENDS ON STOCK PRICES Effect of Dividends on Stock Prices– A Case of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry of Pakistan Kanwal Iqbal Khan University of Central Punjab, Lahore Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Business Management (ISBN: 978-969-9368-06-6) Effect Of Dividends On Stock Prices 2 Abstract In Pakistan corporate sector is adversely facing competition due to economic downturn in the world and making efforts to survive in a competitive and uncertain economic environment. This study will help to improve dividend decisions of corporate sector through proper implementation of their dividend policies. This paper is an attempt to explain the effect of dividend announcements on stock prices of chemical and pharmaceutical industry of Pakistan. A sample of twenty five companies listed at KSE-100 Index is taken from the period of 2001to 2010. Results of this study is based on Fixed and Random Effect Model which is applied on Panel data to explain the relationship between dividends and stock prices after controlling the variables like Earnings per Share, Retention Ratio and Return on Equity. Results indicate that Cash Dividend, Retention Ratio and Return on Equity has significant positive relation with stock market prices and significantly explains the variations in the stock prices of chemical and pharmaceutical sector of Pakistan while Earnings per Share and Stock Dividends have negative insignificant...
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...Chapter – 3.0 An overview – Banking sector & Stock Exchange and Conceptual framework – Macroeconomic variable |3.1 An overview of Banking sector and Stock market of Bangladesh | We are interested in investigating the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables because individual investors can earn abnormal profits by exploiting this relationship and the existence of this utilizable opportunity would then dangerously distort the market’s ability to proficiently allocate scarce resources. In other word, the stock market will lose its informational efficiency. Informational efficiency is defined as at any given time, stock prices fully reflect all available information of the market. Thus, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. Identifying the relationship or informational efficiency thus can be used to correct the current economic stabilization policies. Therefore, the issue of whether stock prices and macroeconomic variables are related or not have received considerable attention. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between stock prices with each of the macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply variables and so on. The knowledge of the prevailing relationship between stock prices one the one hand, and micro variables like market...
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...psun1@lsu.edu Abstract This study investigates the relationship between the institutional holding and the stock’s market friction measure. According to Sun’s (2007) findings, I use Hou and Moskowitz’s (2005) price delay measure (D1) and Liu’s (2006) liquidity measure (LM12) to proxy for a stock’s market friction. I find that a higher total institutional holding tends to decrease a stock’s price delay measure, but institutional holding exhibits a U-shaped relationship with a stock’s LM12 measure. However, as the number of institutions increases, the stock’s market friction decreases. In terms of different types of institutional holdings, higher total block holding or higher top five institutional holding of a stock increases a stock’s market friction level. Furthermore, in contrast to Agarwal’s (2007) findings, higher independent long term institutional holding and risk averse institutional holding tends to decrease a stock’s market friction level. Institutional holding and market friction Abstract This study investigates the relationship between the institutional holding and the stock’s market friction measure. According to Sun’s (2007) findings, I use Hou and Moskowitz’s (2005) price delay measure (D1) and Liu’s (2006) liquidity measure (LM12) to proxy for a stock’s market friction. I find that a higher total institutional holding tends to decrease a stock’s price delay measure, but institutional holding exhibits a U-shaped relationship with a stock’s LM12 measure. However, as the...
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...the company and its stock. The analysis consisted of stock reporting analysis, ratio analysis, duo point analysis, weekly return analysis and the analysis of cost of equity. The stock reporting analysis part of the project analyzed the stock selected with respect to the market Index. For the purpose of analysis the prices of both stock and index were downloaded for the period beginning 15-Jan-2009 till 15-Nov-2011. Ratio analysis had been used as the primary tool for evaluating the performance of the company. The ratio analysis helps in analyzing the probable casual relationships among different items after analyzing the past results. These ratios are derived after analyzing the past results and helps management to prepare budgets, to formulate policy and to prepare future plan. Ratio analysis also helps in making inter firm comparison and also comparisons between different divisions of the company. The required rate of return of CAT is calculated with the help of CAPM model. The model explains the relationship between the systematic risk associated with a stock and its expected return. In this model a stock’s expected return is the risk free rate of return (generally return on Govt. Treasury bonds is taken as risk free rate of return) plus a risk premium based on the stock’s systematic risk. Analysis Stock Reporting Analysis The stock reporting analysis part of the project analyzed the stock selected with respect to the market Index. The stock chosen for analysis...
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...Exchange Rate on Volatility of Market Index at Dhaka Stock Exchange DEWAN MUKTADIR-AL-MUKIT * ABSTRACT The paper investigates the effects of the exchange rates and interest rates on stock market performance by using monthly time series data for the economy of Bangladesh, over the period of 1997 to 2010. This study uses econometric techniques of measuring the long and short term relationship between variables using the concept of Cointegration and Error Correction Model and analysis of Variance Decomposition. Causal relationships have been investigated using Granger causality test. By employing Cointegration technique it is observed that in the long run, a one percent increase in exchange rate and in interest rate contributes1.04% increase and 1.71 % decrease in market index respectively. The estimated error correction coefficient indicates that 7.8 percent deviation of stock returns are corrected in the short run. Finally, Granger causality analysis suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality from market index to exchange rate and from interest rate to market index. Keywords: Cointegration, Granger Causality. Exchange rate, Interest rate, DGEN index 1. INTRODUCTION A well functioning financial system boosts economic growth through proper and efficient allocation of resources. As a part of financial system, the importance and role of stock market towards achieving economic growth is crucial. The functioning of stock market depends on investors’ buying and selling decisions...
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...The return from holding an investment over some period of time is simply any cash payments received due to ownership, plus the change in market price usually expressed as a percent of the beginning market price of the investment. Return comes to you mainly from two sources – income or dividend plus any price appreciation (capital gain or loss) Dt + ( Pt – Pt-1) R = Pt-1 Suppose, you buy for Tk. 100 a security that would pay Tk. 7 in cash to you and be worth Tk. 106 one year later. This return would be (7 +6)/ 100 = 13%. Risk can be defined as the variability of return from those that are expected. In financial decisions it is often helpful to have an objective measure of risk. The main reason for having measuring of risk is to enable us to make better decisions. To be useful, a risk measure should enable us to rank alternative risky ventures. If there are two possibilities being analyzed, A and B, it is often important to know whether A is riskier than B or not. A good measure of risk should also tell us how much more risky A is than B. Is A twice as risky or ten times as risky as B? Is risky at all? Risk measurement procedures are usually based on a particular method of organizing financial problem -through probability distribution. (A set of possible values that a random variable can assume and their associated probabilities of occurrence.) Suppose you are thinking about purchasing stock A, which has a current...
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...Chapter 11 7.(20 points) The following effects seem to suggest predictability within equity markets and thus disprove the Efficient Market Hypothesis. However, consider the following: a. Multiple studies suggest that “value” stocks (measured often by low P/E multiples) earn higher returns over time than “growth” stocks (high P/E multiples). This could suggest a strategy for earning higher returns over time. However, another rational argument may be that traditional forms of CAPM (such as Sharpe’s model) do not fully account for all risk factors which affect a firm’s price level. A firm viewed as riskier may have a lower price and thus P/E multiple. b. The book-to-market effect suggests that an investor can earn excess returns by investing in companies with high book value (the value of a firm’s assets minus its liabilities divided by the number of shares outstanding) to market value. A study by Fama and French 1 suggests that book-to-market value reflects a risk factor that is not accounted for by traditional one variable CAPM. For example, companies experiencing financial distress see the ratio of book to market value increase. Thus a more complex CAPM which includes book-to-market value as an explanatory variable should be used to test market anomalies. c. Stock price momentum can be positively correlated with past performance (short to intermediate horizon) or negatively correlated (long horizon). Historical data seem to imply statistical significance to these patterns. Explanations...
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...9 – CHARACTERIZING RISK AND RETURN Questions LG1 1. Why is the percentage return a more useful measure than the dollar return? The dollar return is most important relative to the amount invested. Thus, a $100 return is more impressive from a $1,000 investment than a $5,000 investment. The percentage return incorporates both the dollar return and the amount invested. Therefore, it is easier to compare percentage return across different investments. LG2 2. Characterize the historical return, risk, and risk-return relationship of the stock, bond and cash markets. Examining Table 9.2, it is clear that the stock market has earned about double the return since 1950 than bonds. Bonds have earned about 50% higher return than the cash markets. The risk in the stock market is also higher than the bond and cash markets according to the standard deviation measurement (Table 9.4). Another illustration of the high risk is that the stock market frequently losses money and sometimes does not earn more than the bond and cash markets over short periods of time (Table 9.2). The risk-return relationship tells us that we should expect higher returns for the riskier market. We do see higher realized returns over the long term to the higher risk asset classes. LG3 3. How do we define risk in this chapter and how do we measure it? Risk is defined as the volatility of an asset’s returns over time. Specifically, the standard deviation of returns is used to measure risk. This...
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...Literature Review on Bangladesh Stock Market Literature Review: 1 Before the decade of eighty much of the stock market literature viewed the present value of dividends to be the principal determinant of market return of stocks. LeRoy and Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981) found that under the assumption of constant discount factor stock prices were too volatile to be consistent with movement in future dividends. The decomposition of stock price movements is very sensitive to what assumption is made about the presence of permanent changes in either real dividend growth or excess stock return (Wohar & Mark, 2006). Cochrane (1992) Timmerman (1995) have argued that fluctuation in stock prices can be explained by time-varying discount rates and future excess returns. Cochrane (1992) by using an alternative methodology to decompose the variability of stock prices also found the variability of excess return to be more important than the variability of dividend growth. A lower degree of efficiency in less developed countries market might be caused by common characteristics of loose disclosure requirements as well as thinness and discontinuity of trading. It is generally assumed that the emerging markets are less efficient than the developed markets. Raihan, et al (2007) found that in Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) in Bangladesh, stock return series do not follow random walk model and the significant autocorrelation co-efficient at different lags do not accept the hypothesis...
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