India@2025: Perils, Promises and Prospects

Since the independence India has always witnessed swing of fortunes. Seen as a leader of Third World countries in during 1950s, the country soon slumped into a food deficient nation in mid 1960s after a severe drought. It was followed by Green revolution where India turned the tables. The seventh decade of twentieth century saw populist campaigns like Garibi Hatao and imposition of emergency in 1975 to restoration of democracy in 1977. Not so long ago in 1991, India witnessed its worst economic crisis. But on the pretext of sound recoveries and deep seeded principles of democracy, India entered twenty first century as an emerging global power. And post 2008 global slump, India displayed remarkable resilience especially in financial sectors when compared other economies. With rising literacy rate cutting across genders and rising per capita income, the future is no less than promising. And if one goes by the words of Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru where he says
“The achievements we celebrate today is but a step, an opening of opportunity, to the greater triumphs and achievements that awaits”
It’s the right time to analyze and anticipate the challenge that awaits us if we aim to appear as a global giant by 2025 and devise a roadmap to tackle the same.
One of striking feature of the great Indian story has been the paradox it has displayed. Despite being in the League of Nations who survive well the global recession and enjoys the optimism of international markets towards its fast growing economy, India still fair poorly in sectors like Infrastructure and Human development. With every fourth kid malnourished and every third person languishing below poverty line, the joy of seven percent growth rate turns bitter. The maternal mortality rate ie the annual number of female deaths per 100,000 live births from any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management stands as high as 212 where Millennium development goal (MDG) expects it to be 109 BY 2015. Infant mortality rate which the number of deaths of infants under one year old in a given year per 1,000 live births stands at 47 while MDG expects it to be 27 by 2015. In another sign that India has much catching up to do, the Human Development Report 2013 released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), ranked the country at a low 136 among 186 countries on its human development index (HDI) which is a composite measure of life expectancy, access to education and income levels. If India aims at reaping rich dividends by 2025, a highly effective strategy to tackle these challenges must be employed. India has so far resorted to flooring a new govt. program every time it has been pressed with a problem; with over a hundreds of social schemes running simultaneously the results till now has been far from satisfactory. The need of the hour is to devise a comprehensive strategy cover all domains from formation to implementation of policy at the root level. In the last decade the civil society has been highly successful in demanding rights such as information, health, education employment and food. It would be advisable to integrate them in this mission when keeping an eye on 2025.
On the economy a lot needs to be done, even if a lot has been done already. Indeed, the last decade India has shown the world its stature and aim to become a global economy with double-digit economic rates. There is a higher scope of integration with world economy. Opening of various sectors for FDI have paved the way but if one nurtures high hopes for 2025 strong structural modifications are required. Overall Trade balance must necessarily be shifted towards exports. India fairs poorly in ease of doing business. The flow of private investment is major determinant of growth which is dependent on state’s capacity to attract it which in turns depends upon investment made by government on human capital and infrastructure. Further policy paralysis and corruption has been serious bottleneck so far. Instituting bodies like Lokpal and creating greater checks and balances against arbitrary exercise of power can act as a strong reagent. Added to this scenario is the fact that nearly 50 per cent of India’s population is under 25 years of age. This demographic profile is extremely important, as the younger the population, the higher would be the savings potential, and thereby higher capital formation. It is a unique combination of demographics and economics that will shape the future of India and propel it to the status of an economic giant by 2025.
Internal security is another front where serious attention is required. Militancy has always been a headache for security forces but the growth of LEFT wing extremism has emerged as greatest internal threat. Combined with terrorism, it has taken more than ten thousand lives in last decade. If India aims at establishing herself as a giant by 2025, immediate and effective steps need to be taken towards it. Creation of NCTC, NTRO and NIA are welcome measures but India must understand that these internal issues must be resolved at the earliest so that all the emphasis must be laid towards strengthening of social and economic sector.
Challenges lies not only in domestic sphere but also in its interaction with international communities. Still its dream for a permanent seat in Security Council is unfulfilled. Border troubles with both China and Pakistan is draining lots of national resources. Keeping an idea on 2025, India must quickly move towards achieving a permanent solution. On a global point of view, India has to take advantage of the positive atmosphere going on in Asia – 21st century seen as being the Asian Century – and create alliances and partnerships to develop and have a global role. It must aspire to play great role in global diplomacy and encourage peaceful solution to various ongoing conflicts. Moreover, it has to take advantage of investments in Africa and keep developing its relation to US – to develop trade and rise against China.
Environment conservation has been another challenge that India faces along with rest of the humanity. Indeed, being seen as the largest state in 2025, it has to implement sustainable development during its growth and get involved in future agreements, which will show a reflective strategy. Since it is still in the development phase, there is an opportunity of creating a culture of green economy to its foundation. Though govt. has reiterated her commitment towards the same, the challenge lies in keeping up with the promise.
The confidence about India’s prospects is gratifying, there no doubt that India now has an opportunity to achieve high growth and emerge as global leader by 2025 but one must recall that it is not the first time that India’s prospects are highly positive. Similar euphoria was around in early 1950s, after Bangladesh war and mid 1980s and every time the opportunity was lost. Hence India must tread its path carefully with cautious optimism as high zeal for opportunities does not last long.