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Vulture Funds in the Xxi Century

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El FMI y Europa advierten sobre las implicancias de la causa de los fondos buitre contra la Argentina

Por Mara Laudonia

La advertencia del FMI sobre las "fuertes implicancias" que podría tener si prospera el fallo del juez Thomas Griesa contra Argentina en la causa presentada por fondos buitre se conoció en momentos en que cada vez está más cerca el pronunciamiento de la Corte de Apelaciones de Nueva York respecto de esta cuestión que puede marcar un antes y un después en los procesos de reestructuración de deuda en el mundo.

A esto se sumó el pronunciamiento del titular del Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, quien admitió el viernes pasado que en una última instancia los default de los países son una opción posible para disciplinar el "riesgo moral" de inversores altamente especulativos.

Desde la última audiencia del 27 de febrero en Nueva York hubo pronósticos agoreros de que la Corte apuraría los tantos, pero sin embargo está dando señales de que se tomará todo el tiempo que considere necesario para dar a conocer su parecer.

El documento del Fondo, que fue dado a conocer el jueves y que ya fue tratado por su Directorio, se trata de una señal contundente acerca de la importancia que tiene el caso argentino para el ámbito financiero mundial, devenido en un "leading case", y de un giro importante en la cúpula del organismo, que hasta el momento evitó pronunciarse sobre el tema.

A fines de 2012, cuando la Corte de Apelaciones abrió paso a la opinión de terceros para el juicio de los fondos buitre contra la Argentina, referentes como Anne Krueger -una ex FMI, en carácter de académica- y Nouriel Roubini, además se asociaciones bancarias, y el mismo gobierno de Estados Unidos, presentaron sus opiniones con serias críticas las interpretación del `pari passu` -tratamiento igualitario- y del método de pago propuesto por el juez Thomas Griesa.

El jueves, el FMI en una análisis de las últimas reestructuraciones de deuda desde 2005 a la fecha, que abarcó Argentina, Belice, Grecia, Seychelles, Ecuador, entre otros, reconoció los siguientes elementos:

-Que el juicio contra la Argentina puede perjudicar el propio funcionamiento del FMI, el flujo de pagos internacionales y afectar futuras reestructuraciones de deuda soberanas.
-Que hay que revisar las políticas de reestructuración de deuda soberana que alienta el FMI, de cara a los problemas que pueden traer los países hoy ahorcados por la deuda y la recesión.
-Que la reestructuración de deuda griega de 2012, la mayor de la historia que superó la marca que había anotado la Argentina en 2005, podría no haber sido suficiente para lograr la senda de la sustentabilidad, y en conjunción con recetas letales del "ajuste".
-Que entre las políticas que alienta el FMI, las Cláusulas de Acción Colectiva (CAC), una solución del mercado de la última década al problema de la deuda -que consta de mayorías- y alentado por el IIF, instituto de popes de las finanzas mundiales y de Wall Street en detrimento de un mecanismo global, fueron un fracaso en el caso Griego, y no evitaron el "problema de los holdouts", es decir, quienes quedan fuera de las reestructuración para cobrarse el 100%.
-Que a raíz de esto, surgió una comparación que reivindica mecanismo de solución de deuda soberana, y volvió a poner sobre la mesa la solución que proponía Krueger en 2001, Sovereign Reestructuring Debt Mechanism (SDRM, por su siglas en inglés), que fue desechado por George Bush padre porque era contrario a intereses de Wall Street.
-Que por el juicio del siglo, Belice en su última reestructuración, de este año, e Italia, en sus emisiones, tuvieron que modificar los contratos en el renglón de la cláusula pari passu "para prevenirse de la estrategia de holdouts usada contra la Argentina".
-Que se advirtió un impacto de los CDS, los seguros de default, que aún no está "completamente testeado", y podría ser contrario al incentivo para ingresar a una reestructuración.
-Que excesiva deuda seniority, como ocurre en el caso de Grecia, que cambió su deuda y tiene mayor exposición con la Troika, desalienta que el país pueda ingresar a los mercados, que se consideran subordinados a dicha deuda.
-Que las políticas del FMI contemplan ciertos procedimientos en el otorgamiento de los préstamos, para atrasos de pago de los países para el sector privado y no para los organismos, y que esta política choca con la realidad de hoy de los países europeos se encuentran excesivamente expuestos a deuda del FMI, entre otros.

Estos puntos fueron tratados en el directorio a raíz de las presión de los países emergentes y de Brasil, y que tienen sintonía con la voz argentina.

La Argentina que se alzó de manera solitaria en Dubai en el 2003, al plantear un ambicioso proceso de restructuración de deuda con una quita superior al 75 por ciento, hoy se encuentra menos solitaria en el tema a partir de lo que está pasando en Europa.

Sobre la propuesta de un mecanismo de solución de quiebras de países, el equipo económico que conduce Hernán Lorenzino, -y que integran el secretario de Finanzas, Adrián Cosentino, y el director del FMI, Sergio Chodos- se opone la objeción de que sea el mismo FMI quien sea juez y parte de la negociación con los acreedores.

Más allá de este reparo y de otros que pudieran surgir de parte del gobierno argentino, y del resto de los directores, es toda una anomalía que esta discusión haya alcanzado el seno del FMI.

También es una anomalía haber escuchado esta semana, coincidentemente, que el titular el Bundesbank, haya admitido que en última instancia, los default son una opción posible para disciplinar el "riesgo moral", lo que puso en alerta a los mercados.
Anomalías propias de los tiempos que corren en la crisis de deuda europea.

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